TPM2012

Poll: Elizabeth Warren Takes Early Edge Over Scott Brown

Elizabeth Warren, former Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Eric Kleefeld September 20, 2011, 11:21 AM

A new survey of Massachusetts from Public Policy Polling (D) has a stunning result — with Republican Sen. Scott Brown narrowly trailing former White House financial reform adviser Elizabeth Warren, who officially launched her campaign last week and has been enjoying a round of positive press coverage.

The numbers: Warren 46%, Brown 44%. In the previous PPP numbers from June, Brown led the lesser-known Warren by 47%-32%.

The survey of registered voters was conducted from September 16-18, and has a ±3.5% margin of error.

Other Democrats who remain less well known continue to trail Brown, with the incumbent leading Tom Conroy by 50%-31%, leading Alan Khazei by 48%-33%, leading Bob Massie by 49%-31%, and leading Setti Warren by 47%-32%.

The poll also gives Brown an approval rating of just 44%, and a disapproval of 45%, compared to 48%-36% in the June poll. Warren’s personal rating is 40% favorable to 22% unfavorable, up from 21%-17% in the June poll.

In a positive sign for Brown, the poll asked: “Do you think Scott Brown has been more an independent voice for Massachusetts or a partisan voice for the national Republican Party?” The answer was 47% independent voice, to 41% partisan Republican voice.

PPP’s Tom Jensen writes: “This poll was taken over the weekend right after a week of positive press surrounding Warren’s candidacy announcement. It’s possible that gave her a bounce that may recede some in the coming weeks. But that doesn’t change Brown’s falling approval numbers- this looks like it will be a highly competitive race.”

Brown was elected to the Senate in a special election in January 2010, following the death of long-time Sen. Ted Kennedy, in a stunning upset against Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley. Brown has exhibited strong skills as a campaigner, but a major challenge for him going into 2012 is that he is nevertheless a Republican senator in a deep-blue state that is expected to vote Democratic by a wide margin in the presidential race.