Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in a new CNN poll of Iowa six days before the January 3rd caucuses, outpacing Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) 25 to 22. But the real surprise in the poll is that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum moved to third with 16 percent of the vote, after months of campaigning in the state seeing little traction.
Though the news of Santorum’s apparent surge is sure to stun casual observers of Iowa, Santorum himself has been predicting his moment will come for months. He all but moved to Iowa over the summer and set about visiting every one of the state’s 99 counties. As recounted at one stop here, Santorum tread lightly on the trail, declining to correct a voter who called Obama a “Muslim Communist” to Santorum’s face.
His willingness to reach out to Iowa voters in the more classic way (as opposed to the new national campaign model utilized by his rivals) netted him important endorsements from Iowa evangelical leaders and the Iowa Secretary of State. His crowds were small and the pundits were not kind, but Santorum kept promising he would surge. CNN’s new poll could be the first sign he was right.
As for the rest of the field, Gingrich sees 14 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry gets the backing of 11 percent, nine percent go for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN). Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman gets the support of one percent.
CNN broke the Santorum surge and Romney—Paul dynamic down like this:
“Most of Santorum’s gains have come among likely caucus participants who are born-again or evangelical, and he now tops the list among that crucial voting bloc, with support from 22% of born-agains compared to 18% for Paul, 16% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.The survey suggests that turnout on January 3 could be crucial in determining who comes out on top in the caucuses.
“Santorum and Paul may benefit from lower turnout, since they have an edge over Romney among likely voters who say that ‘nothing at all’ would prevent them from attending the caucus,” says Holland. “On the other hand, Romney appears to have an edge among those who attended the caucuses four years ago - he did finish in second place in 2008 - and Romney does best among older Iowans.”
In another survey of Iowa from Public Policy Polling (D) out late on Tuesday night, Santorum didn’t see the same movement, stuck in a tie for fifth with Perry. That poll also has fresher data, having been conducted from on Dec. 26th and 27th, whereas the CNN numbers come from interviews done on Dec. 21st through the 24th along with the 26th and 27th.
The CNN poll used 452 interviews with likely Iowa caucus goers. The sampling error is 4.5 percent.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Editor of TPM Media’s PollTracker. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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