You can’t tie Iowa Republicans down. They just love who they love. And with three days to go until the presidential caucuses, they might just be in love with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
The Des Moines Register (DMR) poll, regarded as the best of Hawkeye polling, shows a basic trend that’s been developing for the last week or so in the state: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ahead with 24 percent, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) right behind with 22, and Santorum moving to third with 15 in a late sprint to the finish.
But the DMR points out that the topline results doesn’t paint the whole picture of what’s happening on the ground in the state. Santorum, having never really been out of the single digits in the polls while lacking both money and media attention, is moving up in a big way. “…the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months,” the paper writes. “If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.”
The last week has seen Romney move to the top of the field almost by default. The former governor initially decided not to contest the state, focusing instead on his stronghold of New Hampshire. Except, as Iowa Republicans went from candidate to candidate, they didn’t find anyone with staying power. That left the door open to Romney, who went all in during December and now leads in the polls.
But, just as the race has gone so far, Iowans are simply not satisfied with Romney, and are now trying out a new candidate before Tuesday’s caucus. “Now, it’s Santorum’s time to rocket to the top tier,” the Register wrote. “He has campaigned in Iowa more than any other candidate, stumping the state more than 100 days and conducting more than 300 events since the last presidential election. Next closest is Bachmann, at 80 days.”
100 days. But it seems he just needed a few to compete for the lead.
The DMR poll used 602 interviews with likely GOP caucus-goers conducted from December 27th to the 30th. It has a sampling error of 4 percent.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Editor of TPM Media’s PollTracker. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
Disqus Conversations
Click here to read the Disqus Commenting FAQ.