Updated: Dec. 7, 4:31PM
Karl Rove isn’t officially affiliated with any of the GOP candidates, but if you listen to him, it’s becoming increasingly clear he has a favorite. We’re not the first to notice, but Karl Rove seems firmly in the Mitt Romney camp. What’s more, he’s goes on TV a lot to lob attacks at just about every other candidate.
Rove has taken a stab at just about every candidate other than Romney, and on Tuesday it was Newt Gingrich’s turn. With multiple polls showing Newt Gingrich surging in Iowa, Rove took to Fox News, to undermined the former speaker:
“If in the polls newt is leading by 10 or 11 or 12 points going into the Iowa caucuses and doesn’t win by that margin people are going to say, well, he didn’t meet his mark. That is a challenge for somebody who has not built organization.”
Basically, Rove is framing the Iowa caucuses in such a way that, even if Newt wins, a victory by less than 10 points is interpreted as a loss. Rove’s point is that Gingrich has “momentum” but no “organization,” which means he is likely to underperform relative to his poll numbers, and thus that he’s all fluff. If Newt does win Iowa on January 3, expect Rove back on TV making the same argument.
Add Tuesday’s appearance to a long list of attacks against everyone but Mitt that TPM has been tracking for months now. As each candidate rises and falls, Rove is there to swat them away.
Since Newt’s rise, Rove has dedicated the last week or so to naming Newt’s flaws. Way back in October, and well before the infamous Libya flub, he questioned whether Herman Cain was “up to the task.” And when Rick Perry was considered a serious threat to Romney, Rove was quick to point out that Perry’s position on Social Security, which he called a Ponzi scheme, was politically “toxic.” (Rove would know, seeing as he was an adviser to Bush when he tried to privatize Social Security, but that’s beside the point). Perry was up-and-coming, and Rove tried to scare supporters away.
It’s one thing for Donald Trump to play Republican king-maker, but Rove’s approval comes with a lot of cash. Rove is a key player in the PAC American Crossroads, whose political director is a board member with Romney’s own super PAC, Restore Our Future — a connection that both Crossroads and Romney’s camp has say isn’t meaningful. Either way, the Rove primary is an important one to win, and while Gingrich may be surging in Iowa and South Carolina, it seems he’s got a long way to go on this one.
Pema Levy
Pema Levy is a News Writer at TPM covering the 2012 election. Before coming to TPM, Pema was an assistant editor at The American Prospect where she wrote about politics and the economy.
If Newt gets 10%, that has to 8% more than he was going to get before his "Not-Mitt" surge. But what I love about this is that it is foreshadowin 3 or 4 months of well funded, top tier (by GOP standards anyway) GOP candidates savaging one another to win the right to get crushed by Obama in November.
I know Newt was busy getting rich between 2000 and 2008 but can anybody name an important task force Newt served on under Bushco? They seem to share the same policies. If they avoided appointing him to anything important was it because they personally disliked him or was it because they thought he was still radioactive to the American public? Or maybe they just worried he'd open his big mouth and embarrass them.
I agree that Rove's attacking everyone but Romney, but don't think this is in an attempt to support Romney. My guess is that we'll see another candidate announce soon and that Rove's donor network will be used to set up a SuperPAC that'll take care of complicated ballot access issues on an accelerated schedule. With a win in Iowa (no registration deadline for the caucus) and eventually capturing all of the not-Romney delegates from Florida, South Carolina, and other states that a new candidate wouldn't be on the ballot in, a candidate somewhat to Romney's right and without Mitt's history (or having worked for Obama) would clean up. It's hard to see Rubio, McDonnell, and a handful of other folks stay on the sidelines when they have a clear path to the Presidency. If I could legally get money into InTrade, I'd buy a few thousand shares on Rubio, Daniels, and the field and be happy with the potential ~2000% profit... could easily hedge against any loss by buying candidates in the race with any chance of winning.
I think Rove's smart enough to know that the income inequality sorts of attacks have a lot of popular appeal, and that a wealthy heir who posed for a photo with bills pouring out of his pockets is probably not a good starting point to win.
Zach Hensel Dream on, no one else is coming. The field is set.
Hank Why? I've seen no reason proffered other than that it's too late for a handful of primaries and New York and Illinois are difficult to get on the ballot. I chose Rubio and McDonnell as examples because they're just out of fairly tight contests in huge states and probably have better organization than anyone except Romney and Perry. Most early states (before Super Tuesday) either award delegates proportionally (i.e. Romney could win a plurality of the vote but ultimately most delegates could be pledged to another candidate) and/or are penalized for holding early primaries and their delegates only get half a vote.
As far as I can tell, a campaign that tries to (1) win Iowa and other open caucuses, (2) win big states starting on Super Tuesday, and (3) get other delegates by being right of Romney could win with a good enough candidate. Rubio and McDonnell are good enough; many others are as well (although some like Christie and Pawlenty screwed up by starting and quitting or endorsing Romney). It's probably the best chance they'll have to be President in their lifetime, and the best thing to do at this moment would be to stay out of the circus as long as possible and organize behind the scenes.
Rubio and McDonnell? Seriously? Rubio has a Munchausen problem with his story of how and when his family arrived in the US, and while he may make for a nice candidate in 2020 or 2024, I don't think he is either interested in seeking the Presidency, or up to the task if he gets it. McDonnell is a decent enough guy for someone who went to a Christianist, Right Wing law school and has been spouting right wing rhetoric for the last 20 years (even if he does it in a less abrasive way than your average fire-breathing wingnut) but he has been governor for 2 years in a state that was fairly strong economically before he was elected, and is also not qualified for the job. Neither has been vetted for a national Presidential campaign, which tends to take nice sounding people and make them look like the criminals they really are by the time the dust settles. Nope, it'll be Gingrich against Obama, and Gingrich will be lucky to get 45% of the vote, or to lose by less than 10 Million votes.
The Republicans don't have a candidate. Rove knows this. He should take some time off--maybe go hunting with Cheney. The Republicans sabotaged their party unity when they decided to embrace the Tea Party, and the monster they created is about to destroy them. Couldn't happen to a bigger bunch of jerks. Erick Erickson is right: Obama will win and the GOP will lose for decades to come.
hrebendorf Go shake that bush over there, Karl. That's right, the one just barely within Cheney's peripheral vision.
hrebendorf
I personally don't wish him any harm. But I am contunually surprised that a giant crack does not form in the ground beneath his feet. retrieving him to his master...
If you think about it, tea bagging repubs look like hypocritical fools now. They are the repub purists and yet with Newt we get someone they would be hatefully pounding 24/7 if he were a Dem. Newt is family values impaired (hospital story & affair during push for Clinton impeachment) and ethically challenged ($300,00 fine and resignation as speaker).
All I care about is that no repub wins the White House in 2012. They will totally destroy us and leave most of us kicked to the curb. What is it folks don't get?
Actually, however intended, this is a rare, possibly unique, example of Turdblossom telling the cold, flat out truth. Organization is key, one might even say fundamental, in Iowa and Newt Gunray is far too much of a Internet Based Big Thinking Big Picture World Historical Figure to do something as grubby as organize a ground game in a shitkicker rural state.
NCSteve 3.0 I hope you are right about that.
I don't see why this is an attack on Newton. Rove is lowering expectations and giving an excuse as to why Newton might not perform up to his poll numbers. To me, that sounds like what Rove would say if he wanted Newton to win.
Who would vote for a man that wants to take us back to the early 20th century?
Eliminate child labor laws? OMG! What the hell is wrong with us?
Karl Rove: As the old canard says, keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
Newt is a lot like Rove in a lot of ways, slick and too smart for their own good. Newt is not going to be pliant as a potential President, and that is not what GOP is about. They are all about party line. Newt has made a career out of doing his own thing, and Rove sees that. I think Rove considers Newt to be too much of a wild card.
Bugboy Agree. Not only does Newt tend to go rogue, but I think Rove correctly sees Newt 's baggage as a huge liability in the general election. Noxious as we all find Turd Blossom, he is an astute political schemer.
I wish Karl himself jumped into the race. I got a lot of Pillsbury stock shares.
If Newt effing Gingrich wins Iowa Karl Rove's framing wont mean anything.
ewhsolsonm Rove always did his "best" work by using a puppet such as George W. Bush--someone likeable, which Rove is not. I doubt that anything he says in his own persona will sway many people.
ewhsolsonm It's not his own persona. Rove has the ear of Roger Ailes and a lot of $$$ at his disposal. He will dig up everything on Newt before the Dems do to get Romney the nomination. Or if not Romney, a Player to Be Named Later.
. As I recall, on Monday, we had a tsunami of republicans at TPM telling me that Nancy Pelosi and the Dems are terrified of Newt, because he is just sooo dreamy, so now they are intent to tear him down.
Interesting...I didn't know that Karl Rove was such a dyed in the wool Democrat. You live; you learn.
Chesire You live, you learn, you thank your lucky stars that very wealthy people owe you favors and vice versa. Then you sleep contently in a gold-plated bed, secure in the blissful knowledge that Blackwater is guarding your mansion and Condi Rice is always available for chit chats.
Mickey Bitsko I understand he's dating again, so ladies...
Chesire I glad all of my five sisters can kick some serious butt if they need to.
or gents Chesire Mickey Bitsko
Ick. Chesire Mickey Bitsko
I think you meant "boy scouts," not "ladies"
Chesire Yeah, Nancy looked real worried--when she could stop giggling.
Maybe When are people going to learn you don't underestimate a savvy gal who was born and bred in Baltimore?
Karl is a past master at tearing people down with vicious rumors, and he has many flying monkeys on his team to get the job done. Remember what he did to Anne Richards in Texas and then McCain in South Carolina? If Newt looks like he really could get the nomination, Rove will get serious about taking him out.
Quackers48 No matter who gets the GOP nomination, Rove will be pulling some taut fundraising strings, but all the while he'll be thinking less about the presidential race than about gaining 4 or 5 seats in the House. Righties like Rove know that local and state politics are where the power and money are really at.
Agreed. Their real strategy is to supress voter turnout and reduce dem strength on the state level.
Mickey BitskoQuackers48
libertyluvrzMickey BitskoQuackers48 And during the last 3 years in red states they have passed just such voter suppression laws. I see one big mess on election day. The repubs could do something to throw the election to the Supremes and we all know how that turned out with Gore v Bush.
Romney's always been close with the Bushes, so this comes as no surprise. However there is a nugget of truth to what Turdblossom says: the Iowa Caucus has traditionally been unforgiving to candidates with poor organizational skills, as Howard Dean or Hillary Clinton could tell you. An upset Iowa victory by Ron Paul, or even by Mitt himself is not out of the question IMO (Mitt and Ron being the only two GOP candidates with well-organized campaign teams).
Ostensibly, somebody actually listens to carl rove. Karl? Who gives a shit. What, is everybody with an opinion on republican politics a king maker these days? He's talking way above the heads of the average fox dump viewer, so his machinations seem directed more toward the talking deads and the simplification of sychophantic messaging that is their forte. We'll see if it takes off. I'd be surprised if it does.
slagathor
But Karl controls a billion dollars for the general election so when he $peaks GOPers listen.
True. I was trying to bring rove down to trump by comparing karl and the donald. Karl has the bona fides, and no doubt will figure fat in the probable demise of the newt-sicle. I say probable because I secretly wish newt-sicle gets the nod and goes on to knock a lot of republicans' dicks in the dirt, to the consternation of carl farken rove especially!cacamp
In repub circles he has a lot of money power.
Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich. The only campaign either one could win, and it indeed would be a nail biter, is Biggest Douchebag in the Universe.
Ultimately, though, I think Rove has a lock on it.
beatbort The only difference between them is that Rove can choose someone to get elected and subordinate himself to that person while the narcissist Newt has such a weak ego that he has to always be the one on screen himself. Rove is the more dangerous of the two.
Krugman had it right yesterday. The Republican base demands to be lied to, so the only possible candidate is going to be a cynical liar or crazy. Romney is going the liar route, but he can't deliver the lies with sincerity and the base doesn't trust him. So the fall has been a speed dating party trying to find the alternative to Romney who is a better liar the Mitt and still appeals to the base.
The other candidates are generally crazy and/or stupid and can't win the general election, or they've committed the crime of telling a little of the truth and will never be accepted by the base. Newt, however, while being the stupid person's idea of what a smart person would act like, also has thirty years in front of cameras practicing being glib and changing the subject before he mistakenly answers the question he was asked. The base has tried all the other choices of 'Not Romney' and is now so desperate that Newt looks good.
Fortunately for the Republican insiders, Newt has a history of sabotaging himself and can be expected to do it again. If not, as Pelosi pointed out, the ammunition already lined up in oppo research will sink him. So now we have Rove, Santorum and Quayle attacking Newt to get him out of the way. The insiders know that it is time for Newt to go, preferably before Iowa. . Newt would destroy the Republican Party in the down ballot elections if he got the nomination. The route would be worse that Goldwater. The insiders will not accept that.
Unless somehow things go horribly wrong for the Republican insiders, Newt will soon be gone and Romney will be all that's left. Expect the next week or so to be filled with insiders coming out for Romney and against Newt.
That's my opinion right now, anyway.
rickbrew That was one of Krugman's better columns. I also liked the one a few weeks ago in which he wrote the Occupy people shouldn't talk sp much about the 1% as the .1%, who really have the do-re-mi.
Mickey Bitskorickbrew "Newt, however, while being the stupid person's idea of what a smart person would act like,..."
Pure comedy gold. This is exactly Newt's appeal to the right wing, who also think Limbaugh, O'Reilly, and Hannity are smart. Heh.
rickbrew I totally agree with your assessment of the Repub insiders. I'm just not sure that they're running the show anymore, especially when they're stuck with Romney as their guy.
Maybe You're right that the Repub insiders are not running the show right now. They are still reeling from the tea partiers. But they are rallying.What has changed is that it has come down to Romney vs Newt instead of Romney vs a gaggle of crazies.
Look at today's TPM report on the pushback against Gingrich from the right-wing Libertarians. Expect similar reports from other Republicans, several a day, for the next few weeks. As the threat by Newt to Romney becomes clearer, more of them are going to publicly come out for Romney, and this next few weeks is the time to do it. If they wait until Romney appears to be on the ropes it'll be too late.
I'm not buying into the "Karl Rove is invicible" meme. Yes he controls a lot of money, but Meg Whitman found out money can't always buy you an election. Mitt may come in 2nd by a better margin than expected in Iowa, but when Newt has ridiculous leads in Florida and South Carolina, I'm not buying the Mitt as eventual nominee conventional wisdom.
dfsparks2000 The reason the Repub insiders are coming out of the woodwork against Newt is that the "Mitt is inevitable" theme is wearing thin, and yet Newt is totally unacceptable. A Newt nomination for President would be a greater blow to the institution of the Republican Party down ballot than the Goldwater nomination in 1964 was.
Kkkarl is wingnuts establishment guy and the GOPer establishment is for Mitt. They aren't about to lay their billion dollars on a used up old pol like the Newt, no way. For a billion they want someone who can win. Their favorites (Jeb Bush for Kkkarl, or Christie and Daniels) turned them down to wait for the next election when there is no incumbent.... so Mitt is IT.
Now the elders of the GOP are chewing and spitting out one another, as well as their young.
Rove and Newt at the helm of the party of morals and family values
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