In a video to supporters Thursday, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina made public the many paths to 270 electoral votes he sketched out for reporters last month.
The major highlights: Messina says the campaign is working with more than 40 pathways to victory next year, including strategies that run through Florida and the Midwest (where team Obama has pointed to Democratic organizing in Ohio during the SB5 fight as a key to holding the Buckeye State.)
Perhaps most interesting is the campaign’s continued confidence in the South and the confirmation that the Obama campaign thinks Arizona is in play.
Messina describes a “New South map,” which retains Obama’s electoral victories in North Carolina and Virginia. Despite hardening opposition to Obama among Republicans in recent years, polls have shown Obama running fairly strong in North Carolina against his potential Republican opposition and still performing well in Virginia.
Messina says the campaign is confident those trends will continue, and has put a lot of stock in hanging onto the two southern states.
“We put the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, NC in part because we believe so deeply in this map,” Messina says in the video. “We’ve had big electoral wins in 2011 on the ground, we have great neighborhood teams in North Carolina. And Virginia is one of the bellwethers of national presidential politics now it’s a place that we’ve worked very hard in.”
“I feel good about what we’re building,” he adds.
Arizona, which Messina says was only off the table in 2008 because the Republican nominee, John McCain, was the state’s senior Senator, is the main target in an Obama path to 270 that expands on his 2008 tally of states. Arizona Democrats certainly say the state’s nasty fight over SB 1070 has led to a fired up base that could flip the state into Obama’s column next year, especially with a GOP nominee running with Romney’s baggage when it comes to the Hispanic vote. (Someone like Newt Gingrich may have less of a problem with that slice of the electorate.)
The video is a sign of how far along the Obama campaign is. While the GOP has engaged in a tough primary fight, Obama’s forces have slowly built up strength, putting people on the ground and building up their headquarters staff in Chicago to more than 200.
The real goal of the video — which was sent via email to Obama supporters Thursday morning — is to raise money for the Obama campaign coffers. And to that end, Messina turned to the bleep button.
“People have speculated that this is a billion-dollar campaign,” Messina says, before asking for donations. “That’s bullshit.”
Evan McMorris-Santoro
Evan McMorris-Santoro has covered politics for TPM since 2009. Before that, he was a reporter at National Journal’s Hotline covering election 2008. He started his career covering local politics at newspapers in TN and his native NC.
palarran2011 Paranoia much? Do you know the USA has 5,113 nuclear warheads, with ranges of over 8,00 miles? But duck and cover if you must.
BackcuuntryRonPaulSucks Punctuation, correct spelling, and capitalization would really help your posts out. That, and some semblance of critical thinking.
@palarran go away moran
palarran2011 failtroll fails
palarran2011 No, you don't have a Constitutional right to say whatever you want to say on a private server that is open to the public for comment.
BackcuuntryRonPaulSuckspalarran2011 And your response has no substantive material in it, like a true Paultard.
palarran2011 I deleted a sentence that referred to your drinking too much, much to my regret. Go to bed- you'll thank me in the morning.
Backcuuntrypalarran2011Carlos Fiance So, in trying to defend Ron Paul on TPM, you resort to racial slurs in response to comments criticizing Paul; great strategy.
AZ is probably like Montana for Pres. Obama. He might get close but winning it would be a big upset.
Having worn out your welcome from your very first posts and having been responsible for some very vile posting -- a lot of it under other people's name -- you now want to whine that we don't play nice and why won't we let you play?
AnUncleRemus
AnUncleRemus Why don't you just log back in as JohnPidaras?
palarran2011 Here we go again.
palarran2011 Do you really think that we don't know you've got two socks arguing with each other?
palarran2011 Just flag him as offensive and ignore the admins will sort it out in the morning. I'm sure they're getting tired of his juvenile behavior. It's the Ron Paul supporter extraordinaire commenter formerly known as JohnPidaras.
AZ going Blue?
I wish, but I live here and they love Brewer and Arpaio.
Bunch of old scared people of anything or anyone non-white.
sedwards66 Look on the bright side, most public golf courses in AZ were integrated only 35 years ago. ;-)
Mickey Bitskosedwards66 Is that when they allowed Jews?
Mickey Bitskosedwards66 And if they are scared of nonwhite people, why are they in Arizona? Wouldn't they be happier in North Dakota, or Vermont? Of course, then they'd have to deal with (GASP!) liberals... or Lutherans!!!
I keep hearing that AZ is "in play." As a resident, I don't see much evidence supporting this idea. McCain, Kyl, Brewer, Arpaio...just about every significant state office is held by a Republican. SB1070 is popular here and the feds are blocking it, Fast and Furious happened here and despite evidence that BATF was doing the same thing under Bush, it's still considered Obama's scandal. Anti-Obama sentiment is pretty high, and anti-federal, anti-nanny state, anti-librul sentiment is always popular here.
So, I've got to wonder where they're polling and what they're asking and who they are depending on to flip AZ. My guess is that they're betting on the Latino bloc to tip things in their favor...but that bloc has yet to show up at the polls as a significant force. Even at the height of the SB1070 debate in 2010, it didn't materialize.
A lot of energy went into recalling Russell Pearce, and that was a good thing, but he was replaced with a very conservative Republican. Now they're going after Sheriff Joe...Arpaio's unpopular in some circles, but very popular in others. The federal investigation will make him a martyr. That and the recall attempt will fire up both sides, so it's hard to predict who will get a bigger boost from it.
We've come a long way (backwards) since the days of Janet Napolitano. I just don't see AZ going for Obama.
Lono9265 Having grown up in Tucson and with friends in politics there, I agree. Out of stater's don't understand that there are two Arizona's, the north and the south, and even in the south a moderate/conservative Dem like Gabby Giffords has had to fight for her seat. Wishful thinking usually only leads to complacency. But a gringo white boy can dream, can't he?
Mickey Bitsko Tucson and Flagstaff are liberal, some of the indian communities go Democratic...otherwise AZ's as red as a state gets. It's old farts, military bases, and xenophobes.
Lono9265Mickey Bitsko I live in the Phoenix area. A Mexican-American friend's father and uncle recently became U.S. citizens, after living and raising families here as permanent legal residents since the late 1960's. I told her, "Congratulations! Now they need to register to vote." Her reply: "They already did--on the way home from the ceremony!" The Latino community is huge here, and growing exponentially every year. Unfortunately, they haven't voted in numbers that reflect the size of the population. Now, the are angry enough, and after Pearce was recalled, they are feeling that they can do it, there votes will matter. Ruben Navarette and other activists are organizing the Hispanic community like never before. it could be a game changer.
Also Brewer was just publicly humiliated when she got caught trying to illegally fire the independent chair of the Independent Redistricting Commission (which was put in place via a voter initiative) after the republicans in our congressional delegation had a hissy fit over the proposed maps which make many of their previously safe seats a lot more competitive.
Many of the elderly cranks here will complain endlessly and publicly about Obama, but they are wintertime residents and registered to vote back in their home states.
ahome4babyMickey Bitsko I will believe the "Latinos will be the game-changer" myth when it actually happens. I've heard it for years and a large Latino voting bloc has yet to materialize. Frankly, I think the whole theory is flawed because I don't think that the Latino community is homogenous enough to vote as a truly effective bloc.
Lono9265 McCain won AZ in 2008 with a whopping 53% of the vote. And he's from there. I keep seeing all these posts claiming everyone is a Republican in places like this (or Orange County, or Texas)... Don't you know anybody that isn't white? Or do they just not count?
Lono9265 Oh, and incidentally, Bill Clinton WON Arizona in 1996. And lost to Bush by less than 2% in 1992.
HarryBowman
"Don't you know anybody that isn't white? Or do they just not count?"
What the hell is that crack supposed to mean? Fuck you. I know lots of folks (white and non-white) who are liberals and they all count. They all count as EXACTLY ONE VOTE, and therein lies the problem...we're in the minority here. I never said EVERYONE was a Republican, just that there are more Republicans/conservatives than there are Democrats/liberals. And that's how elections work, you know.
The Republicans swept the 2010 elections despite the SB1070 controversy...AZ reelected Brewer and elected conservative Republicans to every important office in the state. It was a freaking blowout. Every election cycle for the past 15 years I've listened to pundits from both sides of the aisle talk about how AZ is changing and that the state is ready to flip, but it never seems to happen. And the honest truth is that I don't see any indication that this election will be any different.
Yes, John McCain is from AZ...he's also wildly unpopular with the anti-immigration crowd and that's what really hurt his numbers here. Whoever gets the GOP nod this year will not have that same problem.
Bill Clinton won AZ once, but last time I checked, Bill Clinton isn't running. While Bill Clinton was a Democrat, Bill Clinton wasn't one of "them." Bill Clinton was an establishment southern white Christian governor with an unquestioned American birth certificate and an American-sounding name. (And if you think those things don't matter in AZ, you really don't understand the political climate here)
This is the opinion of a liberal Arizonan, take it or leave it. If I'm wrong and Obama does win AZ, I will HAPPILY eat crow come November 7th. I'm just advising you (and Team Obama) not to bet on it happening.
"AZ, VA, NC Could Go Democrat"
What's up with that "Democrat" as an adjective usage? Did TMP hire a headline writer from Fox New?
I'm very impressed with the comments on this thread, especially in that nobody has made a Loggins and Messina joke (yet).
You do what you can with what you can control. I remind you the house of representatives is now in radical control and the president can only do so much. I just pray that women in the suburbs wake up and see what is ahead for reproductive rights when the radicals spread their agenda to jail time for crossing state lines for abortion. Doesn't anyone understand that what they have proposed so far is just what they think they can get away with. Their best as they would describe it is yet to come and if Ginsberg doesn't quit now it will mean possibly 3 new radical justices in the next 3 years. (two retirements and one ginsburg).
nodakson I dont know how to tell you, but the radicals are in the White House and the Senate. Nothing the Republics have done in 3 years is as extreme as 3 straight years of trillion dollar deficits. Perhaps you are not clear on how much a trillion dollars is. A billion dollars is one thousand million dollars. A trillion dollars is a thousand billion dollars. Heart stopping. isnt it. Obama and the Left dont care. They are going to be shocked when the dollar goes into free fall and inflation goes to 30% like Venezuela. Obama can be the Hugo Chavez of the North.
Funny, those with actual money at stake are buying American bonds.howienica nodakson
howienicanodakson Hey why dont you tell W Bush what a trillion dollars is because he pissed away two of them on tax giveaways to the filthy rich, he shit out another trillion in his stupid stupid war in Iraq and has us on the hook for another trillion for a lifetime of medical care for all the TENS OF THOUSANDS of beautiful young Americans he maimed and crippled. How about the trillion dollars the drug companies will make in over the top profits this decade because rethuglicans protect them like little babies? How about the unpaid for Medicare drug program that the rethuglicans thought was so fun to throw on the credit card and curry favor with seniors. What about a massive downturn in economic activity after a bank crash bought on by rethuglican deregulation of banks into international casinos? Clinton the last Democratic President balanced the budget and had big surpluses with his policies which the rethuglicans despised...... and now Obama is pulling teeth trying to get us out of the mess a decade of rethuglican policy has brought us to ....... and you think we are stupid enough to blame the clean up help for making the rich boy mess ??? Fuck You. Get off your computer and go back to school. You do not know shit about how the world works.
howienicanodakson But Dick Cheney said deficits don't matter! and you know perfectly well it was the massive tax cuts for the wealthy that created the largest portion of the current deficit by far. Why do you spew such idiocy when you know it is so easily disproven?
So, I take it you are for ending the Bush tax cuts along with the unfunded wars, because that is not only the source of the deficits, its also the source for the implosion in the Economy. Our society didn't look like this, ten years ago.
The tax cuts, along with other Bush policies, shifted $10 trillion, with a T, from the demand side of the economy to the supply side of the economy. That caused demand to implode and wealth to concentrate, corrupting the political process along the way. There's almost no end to the menace to our society and government that the Bush policies caused.
Since we have a market oriented economy, when demand implodes, the economy implodes.
So shrink the pentagon's budget by 66%, end the Bush tax cuts, leave Afghanistan for the Aghanistanis, put a modest transaction tax on financial transactions, encourage union formation to increase worker bargaining power, thus worker wages, and thus worker purchasing power and thus demand, convert medicare to medicare for all (the federal expenditure for health care would go down, yes, you read that correct), allow workers to monetize their health insurance benefits into their pay checks, and, voila, you will have exploding demand, full employment, and lots of tax revenue flowing in, and very little revenue flowing out.
howienicanodakson
Howie, trolling ain't easy..........Although i agree that we must get deficit spending under under control.......but you are factually challenged. Yes Obama does take some of the responsibility for the current deficit and debt, but the current problem is due to Bush's handing of the economy and its implosion in 2008.
During the presidency of George W. Bush, the gross public debt increased from $5.7 trillion in January 2001 to $10.7 trillion by December 2008, due in part to the Bush tax cuts, an added drug benefit to Medicare and increased military spending caused by the wars in the Middle East. Under President Barack Obama, the debt increased from $10.7 trillion in 2008 to $14.2 trillion by February 2011, caused mainly by decreased tax revenue due to the late-2000s recession.
This is undisputed by everyone except for partisian political hacks and their think tanks.
Why do you hate america howie?.....were you bullied as a child?.......Have you ever sat around p'd off wondering why noone "gets it"? or why people do not recognize your brillance?......Dont worry dude Obama's got your back. he passed Obamacare to help you cover your treatment expenses
Peace
howienica You're funny and whip smart.
If only Team Obama could concentrate this sort of purposefulness and foresight on the economy, we'd have 5% unemployment. Obviously reelection trumps ordinary Americans' problems.
Nothing will radically change the employment situation this year, almost entirely due to the teabagger/GOP demolition of our government and on-going obstructionism and hostage-taking. However, there could be very significant progress made over the nest several years if those obstructions are removed/greatly disempowered.
Barring something completely insane, Obama is going to get re-elected, perhaps even by a landslide. What the real focus is on here is also sweeping the Senate and the Congress as far toward the Democratic side of the equation as possible so that President Obama has the resources and support required to keep making things better.
The next 11 months needs to be focused like a laser beam on accomplishing that. If you were paying attention, you wouldn't need someone to tell you that. bluestater1972
datora. I think Obama understood this from the very beginning. He risked alienating the left so that voters sitting on the fence would either vote for him or stay home. The GOP lovelies that are vying for the nomination are just a gift that no one could have predicted. When his 2nd term starts with a Dem congress, he will be the change that we wanted. That is what I am hoping for anyway.
NOLAdatora I guess you havent seen the Gallup poll today. Or the Rasmussen poll.
Oh, where is said Obama beats Romeny, 50 to 48? That one you've been ignoring all thread long? howienica NOLA datora
datorabluestater1972 I"d like some of what you are smoking.
You'd have to stop drinking to Kool Aid to understand..howienica datora bluestater1972
see the video...then comment. Its right on. Its science....
OMG, we are doomed. The Obama admin was the only firewall to complete GOP domination of Congress and WH. If the Obama team is relying on winning OH, NC, FL in 2012, we are in BIG trouble.
At this point, I'm down to just hoping that Romney doesn't pick a crazy Tea Bagger for VP or a neo-con for Sec of Defense & State.
mk3872 Does it say anywhere on the article that they're "relying" on OH, NC, FL and VA? I read an article where they said they have many (40) paths to getting all their EC votes.
kunda311 If Obama loses FL and OH, he will have NO CHANCE.
mk3872kunda311 I think I'll trust the Obama team over you if you don't mind.
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RANKIS tpm Obama's a Democrat?
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that will just be 'spectators' and ignored.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
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