The heated Florida Republican primary isn’t the only big election on Tuesday. All the way on the other end of the country is the special election for Oregon’s 1st Congressional District — or rather, the final day of an election where voting has been actively going on for three weeks.
A SurveyUSA poll released in early January, when ballots were first going out, gave Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici a lead of 50%-39% over Republican businessman and 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles, in the race to fill disgraced Dem Rep. David Wu’s seat.
Wu resigned back in August, after he was accused of an unwanted sexual advance on the teenage daughter of a donor. On the one hand, the seat should be very safe — but on the other, Democrats also lost the seemingly solid New York seat of Rep. Anthony Weiner, who resigned as a result of his own sex scandal involving lewd online chats and photos.
Like all elections in the state, the race is being conducted under Oregon’s mail-in ballot system — which, along with Washington state, is almost nothing like voting in the rest of the country. Instead of most voters going to polling precincts on election day, voters are instead all sent ballots which are then returned by mail. On election day itself, the final voters can hand in their ballots at drop-off locations.
And under this system, first enacted in 1998, Oregon has had among the highest voter turnout in the country — for example, turnout in the 2010 midterm elections, in which the state had a closely contested race for governor, was 72 percent.
“So you could safely say many Oregonians under the age of 30 have never voted in a poll place,” said Andrea Cantu-Schomus, communications director for the Secretary of State’s office. “Including myself — I’m a little over 30, but I voted absentee while in college. So I’ve never voted in a polling place.”
For this race, the ballots went out on January 3. Cantu-Schomus estimated that current turnout for this special election, based only on the ballots that have been turned in is 25 percent. “Generally we do see a big push in the last couple of days, and that has been sort of a new phenomenon that we’ve seen in the last few years,” compared to how in past years, people would tend to turn in their ballots much sooner.
Friday is considered the last day to safely mail a ballot, with confidence that it will arrive at election offices by the Tuesday deadline. After that, voters are encouraged to use the drop-off sites.
In 2008, Barack Obama carried the district by 61%-36%, and Wu didn’t even have a Republican opponent at all, winning with 73% of the vote against a number of independent and minor-party candidates. In the Republican wave of 2010, he won re-election with a still healthy 55%-42% against Cornilles.
Eyebrows were seriously raised in December, however, when the Democratic Congressional Committee reserved over $1 million in TV time for the race. By comparison, the National Republican Congressional Committee only just got involved, airing a coordinated ad with Cornilles.
A Republican source told TPM on Thursday that the race would be an “uphill climb for them,” but also took some pride in it: “But if Dems need to spend over $1 million to hold seats that Obama won with 62%, it’s going to be a long 2012.”
Indeed, in just January alone, the Democratic Congressional Committee has spent almost $800,000 — for a total of nearly $1.3 million on the race overall.
Meanwhile, a Democratic source predicted victory: “Democrats will be successful in Oregon’s 1st district proving that Republican candidates won’t be successful distancing themselves from their tea party roots in the coming election year.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
What a nut. Molest a teen age girl, screw up your finanances and lose your job all at the same time. What was he thinking that gave him that kind of courage? What did she look like?
Oregon is screwed up in countless ways, home of both K lan and environmental terrorists, both execrable.
I can understand reserving the ad buy just in case, and watching the polls to avoid nasty surprises, but I question actually spending $800,000 on ads with no indication the race is close. I haven't donated to the DCCC, and it's because they seem to consistently waste their TV ad money. If they aren't using a ground game to tell people there's a special election, which voters usually don't, and get the identified Democrats out to vote, then I don't see what the ads accomplish.
She sure looks like a winner!
Why does TPM refer to the former Congressman as "disgraced"? I think that is both unfair and innaccurate. Rep. Wu clearly and obviously was mentally ill. Is that a disgrace? I know he behaved in outlandish and absurd ways prior to his resignation but it was all a result of obvious mental illness. I think it's kind of disgraceful that this article includes the word disgraced because of this.
Even though I watch everything via dvr to avoid commercials, I still caught enough to see Bonamici running good, effective ads, both positive and negative ("Cornilles, right for the Tea Party, very wrong for us!"). She's got a great record, is a solid representative, and should win by a comfortable margin.
BTW, it amazes me that more states don't vote like we do. It's easier, costs much less, lets people sit around their dorm rooms, kitchen tables and senior centers and review the voters handbook and ballot, either on their own or with others, gets much higher turnout, avoids problems caused by last-minute glitches with voting machines or polling stations, eliminates last minute surprises so it puts more emphasis on policy, prevents polling place disenfranchisement, AND we don't need to go out in the rain!
Mr.E. I think you just succinctly explained all of the reasons why more states don't allow voting the Oregon way.
In the republican primary debate, a moderator asked Cornilles how he felt about reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act, to which he replied, "I don't know what that is." Another candidate jumped in to answer for him.
I found it unbelievable that a candidate for Congress didn't know something so fundamental, considering the recent past. Do republicans read the news?
That is a big Bonamici.
Step one:
Keep her AWAY from FUZZY BUNNY COSTUMES!
Pretty sure she will win - she comes off as capable and calm. He can't say anything except "I'm a job creator." And the Oregonian (which endorsed GWB twice) pointed out that he has had 6 employees at the most and then endorsed Bonamici. Plus the seat has been Democratic for over 20 years.
She could do it. She's a tiger that one!
If her years in the state legislature and her campaign are an indication, Suzanne Bonamici is likely to add a strong, progressive voice to the Oregon Congressional delegation very much in the spirit of Jeff Merkley, who is quietly emerging as an outstanding United States Senator
Merkley rocks. I voted for Steve Novick in the primary, but Jeff has been wonderful from the first.
Powkat Merkley, Defazio & Wyden. And now Bonamici. Oregon rocks.
This is why I will never give money to Congressional democratic campaign geniuses.
We need better, not JUST more Dems. I am unimpressed with the DCCC "strategists."
It is sad that any area of the country loves being led by loons. Just dress up anything and elect it, look what happened in 08, nothing a 10k empty suit cannot fix
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