Mitt Romney’s latest problems in South Carolina may have just gone national.
As TPM’s Evan McMorris-Santoro reported from the ground in Charleston on Thursday night, the former Massachusetts Governor didn’t exactly stop former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s momentum. In fact, he stumbled in some of his answers as Gingrich soared. Newt had reason to be confident — he’s rocketed to the top of the polls in South Carolina, creating a national narrative on his resurgence.
Now it seems that narrative has spilled into national polling results. Gallup’s tracking poll of the national Republican race released today shows that Romney has dropped seven points in six days, with Gingrich having risen seven over the same time, clipping Romney’s lead to ten, 30 - 20.
Gallup’s Editor-in-chief Frank Newport appeared on MSNBC to discuss the results, describing the Romney trends as a “collapse.” “We have seen more movement, more roller coaster kind of effect this year than any other Republican primary in our history of tracking,” Newport said. “I think anything is possible. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility if Romney recovers. We’ll wait and see.”
Here’s the video:
The issue at hand is two-fold. One, this is another example of Romney’s numbers being rather soft. Romney was up big in South Carolina as he successfully fought off Gingrich’s attacks on his tenure as CEO of Bain Capital, which ended up causing Newt to get jammed on whether he was deviating from conservative principles on free enterprise. But all it took was a great performance by Gingrich in Monday night’s debate to catapult him over Romney in a few days — multiple polls showed the before and after effect of the debate in the South Carolina numbers.
Secondly, these developments may cause Romney to lose South Carolina. The next primary state is Florida. It’s a state with multiple large media markets and is extremely expensive to campaign in. And through the campaign so far, Romney has been the best fundraiser — his haul in the last quarter was $19 million. Additionally, Gingrich already had a surge once. And Romney knocked him out in Iowa with negative ads. So the evidence points to that being possible again.
Our TPM Poll Average shows the same trend as Gallup: Romney’s lead is deteriorating nationally as Gingrich rises in South Carolina. As of now, the numbers make it look like if Republicans want the process to continue, it certainly can — Romney still doesn’t have the support within GOP voting blocs to lock things down completely.
National GOP race:
South Carolina GOP race:
Kyle Leighton
Kyle Leighton is a News Writer at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
WOuld like to have posted something on the "Newt WIns" thing. Unfortunately, sometimes this website recognizes me, but more often it doesn't.
Just more evidence that the GOP doesn't know what the hell it's doing this election and is going to go down in flames as a result of all the internal inconsistencies within its belief system and constituency, much like the USSR finally crashed and burned.
My advise to Romney is to GET OUT NOW before he's embarrassed any further. What I mean is that the latest polls have him second to Gingrich--- Gingrich??? Jeebus Cripes folks I have to believe that this whole clown show is showing the whole world what a poor cast of characters we have vying for POTUS. Personally I don't think I could show my face in public if I was second to an immoral dishonest thieving liar like Newt Gingrich.
I am glad that Romney can't close the deal because without anyone having a lock on the nomination it still feels like all these pricks can still lose. And that is the only outcome that would satisfy me.
Small axe One might worry about a brokered convention, a dark horse candidate with a pretty smile and not enough time for the voting public to get a decent vetting. Voters might be so weary that a telegenic, somewhat unknown (not fully exposed) candidate would bring such a sense of relief that some independents might be swayed.
And behind the telegenic dark horse? The same ol nasty ass string pullers who could never get elected on their own, sort of like dick cheney.
attilatheblondSmall axe The GOP may be betting all their money on congressional seats rather than the presidency. If they take over both houses, it really doesn't matter to them who sits in the White House.
justnosySmall axe Congresswhores are cheaper, that's for sure. And I know money is coming into MT to support Rehberg;s campaign for Tester's senate seat. Vote counts same as a senator from anywhere else and the campaign is not such a big investment in a state like this.
justnosyattilatheblondSmall axe I agree that that may be their strategy. I actually sent a hundred to the DCCC just because of this. I can't tell you how resistant I've been to giving a damn dime to the DCCC. They totally piss me off; but the image of a congressional fight over a Democratically chosen supreme court justice put the stamp on my envelope.
Romney is the epitome of what is wrong with this country. It's not ENVY or punishing success as he say's. It's the fact that the 1% on wall street through greed created the financial crisis which lead to the recession. Then the tax payers bailed out the 1% too big to fail banks. In response they quit lending or put in tougher restrictions on consumers who bailed them out. NOW you have the richest man in the country (Buffett) who has alot more money than Romney urging for a higher tax rate. Especially since the 1% did well before 08 from Bush tax cuts. With $14 trillion debt no doubt some entitleent reforms needed but with some tax revenue also... For fiscal debt of country. In response Romney & other 1% cry and whine about raising their taxes not pointing out it's only like a 3% increase before Bush tax rate. To add fuel to fire Romney is likely only paying capital gains income tax rate on his income since it's all from investments in millions. THEN it will likely come out that Romney's income was put into off shore accounts protecting it from taxes. Which is what alot of 1%ers do thru tax shields. I won't even get into the doors that are opened for you through the prestige of being in the 1% wealthy club.
Cantors comments about GOP needing to get behind candidate ASAP is soo telling republican party is worried about Newt. What's funny it's Cantors lil teabagger's that are doing it.
tjirish34 What's funnier is that while Cantor says his party has to get behind someone pronto, he himself declines to make an endorsement!
walterledgett50tjirish34 Exactly. Cantor is the exemplary do-nothing congressman.
MerryMirthwalterledgett50tjirish34 Don't forget about Ron Paul; all he's been good at is routing billions in gubmint' spending to his district in Galveston.
Hobbes83walterledgett50tjirish34 Ron Paul also produced a son Randal Paul.
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I'd feel better about this "collapse" if it were a reflection on his policy stances, but it's not (it's snot).
The evangelicals are stuck with a choice of a serial adulterer or a Mormon.
Could it be because of his waffling on disclosing his tax returns?
Love it. Hope they fight amongst themselves for months!
All those Republicans should collapse nationally.
A phenomenon generally known as "chaos".
This is getting more and more entertaining by the minute, quick, get the popcorn!
Who understands the polls? one day these guys are 45%, after 2 stupid debates and some dirty-stories, they are 22%.
It doesn't matter. Despite the conventional wisdom, Obama will destroy Romney too.
Yeah well, Perry was once "dominating" nationally. There's more to this roller coaster still.
@ Peter Formaini: As Perry dropped out, he endorsed Gingrich. If Santorum drops out, who will he pick? (VERY unlikely that Ron Paul will drop out...) And it's looking like Gingrich might very likely just squeak by Romney in South Carolina. (Santorum took Iowa, Romney took New Hampshire.)
Given that the vast majority of Republicans (to a 2-1 margin) actively don't want Romney, all it takes is trimming the field before March to give anti-Romneys someone to rally behind. The major primaries happen in March and April, so...
We'll see if Gingrich's momentum is sustainable. But lowering the lead by roughly 13-15% in a short time? Pretty impressive.
The GOP has such a poor group that there will be a lot of collapsing, reviving until the super pacs all make up and decide whom their little pet is going be for Nov. It is going to be the most subservient one.
It's because he speaks French. Obviously.
Only at TPM an a candidate who remains well ahead of everyone else be said to have 'collapsed'. Talk about misleading headlines.....
The Republicans get to choose between Gingrich and Romney. This is what is termed a "lose-lose" situation.
They are trying to nominate a not Mitt Romney, but if they go too socially conservative, Ron Paul will split the vote as a 3rd party candidate.
Given the electoral college map, Romney actually has a pretty good chance of beating Obama, if he can just keep within striking distance. He's currently fluctuating between 1 and 2% behind Obama in the polls (averaged over a half-dozen polling organizations). That's close enough to pretty much pick up the Republican states, and be a real challenge in swing states. Given how swing states generally vote, that means Obama would have to really fight for the last 10-20 electoral votes to win (otherwise, he'll lose just barely...).
2012 isn't going to be a landslide, it's going to be close.
Pass the popcorn!!
I agree with Paul A above. The GOP has conceded 2012. It has enough of a problem to retain the House.
The right is looking for someone that goes for the jugular vein where the President is concerned and Newt is demonstrating that he's capable of doing that. He doesn't care that his comments are lies or if his past is brought up he blames the media and the President so he's their guy. Guess they're not too worried about how the country will be governed if he wins but it's most important to beat Obama. If this is what the GOP bases their election on then I hope they lose big time and we have a big job ahead to make sure that happens.
In any other cycle, it would be apparent just how terrible a candidate Mittens is. He's just not that skilled a pol. He won one election in his entire career, lost a few more, and he's going up against one of the most talented campaigners who ever came down the pike.
I still find it unbelievable that he never seemed to consider how to handle the most obvious and non-controversial disclosures candidates usually make.
Seriously: most state legislature candidates release tax returns by the time they're at this stage. Romney never seems to have thought this through - he's responding to it all on the fly as if it's a total surprise.
the more people see mitt romney, the less they like him.
I think that Romney has an obsession with President Obama. All he did was talk about Obama haha.
FTGOP
It's amazing to watch this happen. Also amazing to think that one of those other three -- a fringe Congressman, an undistinguished ex-Senator and a disgraced former Speaker -- will soon be leading the pack.
If you were to give the RNC truth serum, they would concede that they believe 2012 is going to go to Obama. In that case, their candidate, whoever it is, is a sacrificial lamb. The real campaign within the GOP is to shed themselves of the Tea Party crazies once and for all. I think they are hoping that a defeat in 2012 will not only get rid of the old guard like Gingrich but also the nuts that are eating away at the Party's ability to govern at all.
Mitt Romney is a silver-spoon 1%-of-the-1%'er who is so out of touch with normal American life that it's beyond laughable.
Add in that he's changed his story about everything so many times that he's become a cartoon of a chameleon.
I guess...America's right and he's wrong?
Awwww...it got too hot in the kitchen for many a GOPer so they are taking off their Mittens. Next the MSM should Newt(er) the Grinch...
OMG, Newt as the nominee. Grab your popcorn...
That's steep! Curious to see what the other national polls start showing.
Amazing. The Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot, just like Democrats often do. Mitt is the only one of the group of bozos running in South Carolina who has a chance of beating Obama. Perhas the the GOP convention intervenes and nominate a middle of the road candidate rather than one of these flat earthers.
And he's STILL the closest thing the GOP has to a prayer of defeating President Obama
If the influx of money into the various primary states wasn't so important, perhaps they would just concede to Obama and go home?
Enjoy your nomination Christians. Below are a few of the Mormon beliefs in which Romney is a high ranking member. Really want a shock, look up the "White horse prophecy and president". Personally I am not standing in front of God explaining why I supported Romney. I'll take anyone else regardless of how much I like his stance.
The Bible is unreliable and incomplete for faith.
God curses certain individuals with dark skin. The races are determined by how worthy individuals were prior to this mortal life. Blacks were not as faithful…(Fielding Smith, Doctrines of Salvation 1:61-7 McConkie, Mormon Doctrine, 527-8
God needs a wife to become God. God the Father has at least one wife that He needed in order to become exalted to Godhood,... (McConkie, Mormon Doctrine, 516-7 Young, The Journal of Discourses 1:50;
The Heavenly Father has a Heavenly Father before Him. God the Father has a Father whom He followed as Jesus had followed His Father in order to become a god (Fielding Smith, The Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, 373
The God of this world was once a man who became God. God is an exalted man, who needed to do certain things in order to become God for this world (Ibid.; and James Talmage, Articles of Faith, 430).
Humans may become Gods for other worlds as God is God for this world. Worthy Mormons may become gods toD&C 76:50-8 and 95, 132:15-23, 29, and 37; and Gospel Principles, 302 [1997 edition]).
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