The retirement of Gov. Bev Perdue (D-NC) improves the chances that Democrats will keep the governorship in the state, according to new numbers from North Carolina-based pollster Public Policy Polling (D). But the firm also said that her retirement is good news for a fellow Democrat — President Obama.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “Where she consistently trailed by double digits, a generic Democrat actually has a one point lead in our polling. Pat McCrory is a very formidable Republican candidate, but with a new face Democrats will now have a fighting chance.”
That being said, it doesn’t seem like there’s a deep bench for Democrats in the state — the best candidate against presumptive Republican nominee, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, is Erskine Bowles, a former Chief-of-Staff in the Clinton White House and centrist Democrat. The PPP poll shows a race between those two men locked in a statistical dead heat, 44 percent for McCrory and 42 for Bowles.
“Pat McCrory is a uniquely strong Republican candidate and this is still going to be a very tough hold for Democrats in the state,” said PPP pollster Tom Jensen in an email responding to follow up questions from TPM. “But things look a lot brighter than they did a week ago.” Indeed, our TPM Poll Average of a potential Perdue-McCrory matchup didn’t look good for Democrats — she’s been down by close to double digits for more than a year in our numbers.
Other possible Democratic candidates don’t fare as well as Bowles in the state, including Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC) who recently announced his retirement from Congress but was reported to be mulling a run. Miller is down 14 to McCrory, and Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC), who a local Asheville Television station reported is “strongly considering and leaning towards running for governor,” is behind 17.
But on the presidential side, the Perdue retirement makes things a bit brighter for President Obama, according to Jensen.
“Obama is definitely better off in North Carolina without Perdue on the ticket,” wrote Jensen. “Her term hasn’t been good for the Democratic brand in the state, and it really wouldn’t have been in Obama’s best interests to campaign with her. Whoever the Democratic nominee is at this point, they won’t have a 32% approval rating, and Obama should be able to appear in public with whoever it is without having to worry about negative political fallout.”
North Carolina has remained very much within reach for President Obama, despite a dip in his approval ratings in the state during the fractious 2011 legislative cycle in Congress. He remains locked in a battle with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the state, who presents the strongest challenge to the President. We’ll have to wait for new polling without Perdue as the standard bearer for Democrats, but for now, President Obama wasn’t in a bad position before her retirement, and could be helped by Perdue’s departure.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Poll Editor at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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