Polls earlier this week showed a huge bump for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich after his win in the South Carolina primary. Only days later, the momentum has returned to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is again up in the Sunshine State. The question now is whether Romney’s performance in Thursday’s debate, after which many pundits argued he outshone Gingrich, will be enough to hold him through the weekend, as he remains the subject of negative attacks on his business record via a pro-Gingrich super PAC.
New Quinnipiac University polling numbers out Friday morning now show a nine point lead in the state for Romney, who gets 38 percent of the Florida Republican electorate surveyed to Gingrich’s 29, just outside the poll’s margin of error. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who has essentially punted on the state, gets 14 and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum sees 12.
More troubling for Gingrich is that he is now splitting the conservative vote nearly evenly in the new data — Gingrich’s surge and win in South Carolina came on the backs of the “very conservative” voting bloc, which has been one of the more fluid groups of voters throughout this campaign cycle. That Romney even competes with Gingrich among conservatives almost guarantees him the most support in the poll: Romney continues to dominate moderate party members in the Quinnipiac poll, which has been consistent through the Republican primary cycle.
“Speaker Newt Gingrich’s momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a release. “Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race.”
Indeed, Romney seems to be finishing strong in Florida, and while most voters will cast their ballots on the official January 31st primary date, Romney’s campaign has also run a strong early voting campaign, urging supporters to mail in their ballot ahead of time. If Romney wins handily on election day itself as well, he could have a large margin of victory.
Our current TPM Poll Average shows Romney with a 9.3 percent lead in the state.
The Quinnipiac poll used 580 live telephone interviews with likely Florida Republican primary voters conducted January 24th through the 26th. It has a sampling error of 4.1 percent.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle Leighton is a News Writer at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
NEWT GINGRICH, the presumed heir to the Reagan Revolution, after hisstunning victory in South Carolina over the Illuminati’s Manchurian Mormon Madoff, has surged ahead of Romney in the latest National Gallup Polls. Romney has been clearly sliding nationally. In Florida, however, the heir to Reagan mantle has come upon a Romney Campaign in full firewall mode, prepared perhaps to do to him what certain forces in control of the GOP did to Al Gore in the Unprecedented 2000 Presidential election. Leadership of the Anglo American Establishment - Pilgrims Society (George H.W. Bush/CIA), same ones who very much distrusted Barry Goldwater & Ronald Reagan for taking the GOP out of their hands, plan to dispatch Gingrich as well. As Wall Street’s horse in this race Romney enjoys having powerful forces who control all the levers of power in America very much aligned in his favor. The Corporate media misleads the public with their narrative that stokes Romney's inevitability. Wall Street, Bain Capital, Clear Channel and the Media Illuminati all are determined to do all that they can to help Romney secure the nomination and make him President, including perhaps giving the man who has baptized dead people,including Holocaust victims, into the Mormon faith, the votes of dead people in the Republican race. Dead voters are a tad less discerning. They usually vote as preferred by party leaders and the Diebold voting machines which can be hacked by remote control to give the intended result. In the end, ultimately it may prove too much for Gingrich to overcome
Mitt Romney could have logically been on Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential (VP) Short list in 2008 presidential run if Mitt Romney did not flip-flop from the views he held in MA.Mitt Romney is a chameleon and lacks a moral compass. Anything goes to make a dollar is NOT Capitalism. Under your strict definition drug dealers are Capitalists like Mitt Romney.The drug dealer or corporate raider are both wrong. Newt Gingrich has a right and obligation to attack these forms of Capitalism. The business venture was three separate parameters is it moral, ethical, or legal. The drug dealer is immoral and illegal. Mitt Romney is immoral and unethical. Mitt Romney is not and NEVER was in business to create jobs Mitt Romney will never be president ................. Many on the CHRISTIAN right have become Pro-life Democrats because of anything goes and band wagoner Republicans.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-aeD1HXjaY
Nobody wants either one of these guys very bad, even Republicans.
For all of Newt's bluster and bravado. At the last debate when it was RIGHT there for him... Newt backed down!!! Same thing happened to John Kerry in first debate with Bush in 4. Bush was awful in first debate. He came back with at least being competent. Instead of going after Bush in 2nd debate. kerry backed off and Bush won. You have to jump through the window while it's open. Regardless I really think this tax issue with Romney is going to hurt him throughout the general election. It was baggage and Romney knew it. Plus Romney didn't get to control when to put it out there. It will follow him around and trying say he paid 50% or whatever just makes it look worse.
Words I figured I would never write: I was rooting for Newt.
Maybe He'll get another bump when Santorum gives up.
My prediction is Newt may come very close (~1-2 points) to beating Romney in FL on Tuesday just like Rick Santorum did it on Iowa. If you look at the last 3 FL Q-polls, the Romney's numbers remain the same 34-36, Newts numbers are fluctuating widely by 20 points because of the onslaught of TV ads by Romney. However, Newt's crowds are enormous in FL compared to Romney in the last few days and in the national Gallup poll, Newt is still leading by 6-8 points without showing any downward blip for Newt. There is a disconnect here. Newt leaning voters in FL are going back and forth between Newt and non-Romney candidates (Undecided, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum) and on the primary day they are going to come back to Newt again. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are NOT campaigning or they have left FL for good. My prediction is their numbers are going to be much smaller (<5% for both together). In the end, it is going to be either 'FL-2000' or 'Iowa-2012' again and Newt is going to squeak by a point or two.
natsiva
Take a look at more recent polls. they all say Romney by 8%-10%.
Newt will win FL. Santorum supporters will realize that there vote will be wasted, so their next alternative is Newt. Mormonism and moderate are not what Santorum supporters want. I am hoping that Newt wins, more money spent by Romney and the GOP will be less money for the general. Plus the attacks are damaging the GOP brand. Cain, Perry, Palin, Bachmann, Paul, are all damaging the GOP brand and its tea party wing.
Mitt Romney baptized his dead atheist father inlaw after he died,... like mormons do all the time-illegally... i linked it on TDB - orig came from gawker - this is a big deal, he is a relgious leader damn close to our white house
Gone Rouge How is this 'after-death, no-body-involved' "baptizing" illegal?
Also, I'm an Atheist and know that someone "baptizing" the idea of me will have no affect on my rotting corpse or my non-existant soul.
Atheists aren't the one's who have a problem with this, it's people of other religions. When people start bringing up the fact that Mormons do this to non-Mormon Christians.. That'll cause a ruckus... A fun to watch ruckus.
Gone Rouge Apparently he donated almost as much to the Mormon church as he paid in federal income taxes for the years covered by his tax release. I have no problem with Mormon, but I have a serious problem with anyone who wants to incorporate their religion into government and it's hard to believe Romney would not do that given his position in the church and his stand on many issues with a religious component--women's rights, for example.
Ron Paul...That beady eyed Austrian School Confederate Dominionist twerp is just in it for the money. He raises a fortune and his campaign staff is just loaded with friends and family.
A lot of Republican establishment types and media people are basically saying if Romney wins Florida then he sows up the nomination... but why are we so sure of that when Newt still has big leads nationally? Yes... a win in Florida would probably swing the national polls towards Romney... But how about the idea that the Florida electorate isn't very representative of the average Republican? Is it? ... Well... I just want to keep the day dream of Gingrich as GOP nominee alive I guess... it would be so beautiful. Don't get me wrong; I think Obama will beat Romney... but I think he would absolutely crush Gingrich. It would be awesome.
MarvinMarks They said the same about North Carolina. Gingrich is at a disadvantage because he doesn't have Romney's money. But if Santorum drops out, Gingrich may benefit and make up for Romney's money advantage.
tonnybMarvinMarks
South Carolina, you mean. No problem. It's an understandably easy slip to make when typing or speaking. But I promise we North Carolinians are much, much more evolved than South Carolinians. When we walk, our knuckles rarely drag on the ground!
The Nose Right. South Carolina. Happy to hear about the evolutionary progress in North Carolina.
The Nose HA! Although I do feel compelled to point out that North Carolina was the home state of that renowned knuckle-dragger Jesse Helms...
MarvinMarks National polls don't matter in Presidential primaries. The candidates aren't spending any time advertising and campaigning in a lot of the states polled. Once they get to a state and start focusing laser like on the voters there, their opinions change. Rudy polled really well nationally in 2008 because he had good name recognition. But he was a disaster in the individual states that actually voted and he needed to win.
Daniel Sickles Congressman ExtraordinaireMarvinMarks Which is why a few small states that are unrepresentative of the nation at large determine presidential nominees.
MarvinMarks I think the FL primary polls are rigged by the GOP establishment. How one can explain a wide swing in FL primary polls without a blip on the Gallup National poll where Newt is leading by 8 points today. I don't think Paul is going to get 9 points. May be 1 or 2. It is exclusively a GOP primary, no independents or democrats or libertarians are allowed in this primary. Ron Paul is not campaigning either. I think it is going to be close and Newt may win FL primary by a point or two.
MarvinMarks I wanted Newt as the nominee because of the fact the Republican congress up for election are not even thinking Newt would beat Obama. They are worried he would hurt them down the ticket. It would be hilarious to watch the reaction from the established Republican party if Newt wins... They have to back him but at their own peril.
FLORIDA WITH NEWT!!! GO NEWT!!!
Grandma4Newt Yeah! Go, Newt, go!!! Preferably out the door, down the street and across the nearest border... Mexico's nice this time of year, I hear!
On another website, I read an article about the big swings in the polling, which they credit to the massive number of ads having an effect on "low information voters".
Which I think is the politically correct way to say rock f*%&ing stupid.
MatthewHubbard Could be low information voters are more likely to believe what the see on TV. The link I provided below is to a study that showed Republicans more influenced by TV news than democrats.
tonnyb Explains Fox News' influence.
tonnyb
I don't see a comment from you with a link on this thread.
MatthewHubbard On my screen it is a few comments below your comment here. Here is the link again.
http://climateshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/...
Check out page 21.
tonnyb Thanks.
MatthewHubbard Looks like the original was removed.
tonnybMatthewHubbard low information is one thing, misinformation completely another...
JEPMatthewHubbard Yes. There's also the low-information-misinformed voter.
tonnyb "There's also the low-information-misinformed voter."
Otherwise known as "the core FoxNews viewer demographic."
MatthewHubbard
Yeah Matt, they are exactly how you describe them.
Remember during the height of the tea party mobs, they went out and interviewed peeps in the tea crowd. There was this one, he had a sign that was trying to spell "socialism" and he had it spelled wrong, then when the reporter asked him if he knew what the word meant, he said he didn't, but that it had something to do with Russia.
This is why the repub party is so against education, because if their base got even the slightest amount of it, they would never win another election.
marconickolasMatthewHubbard I believe most of them think that "socialist" is a synonym for "Democrat."
Well, when you walk out the door and you see how ignorant and non-caring people are, you see why they are not voting for Liberty..
If Ron Paul doesn't win, I'd Like to See Gingrich with Paul as his VP. Romney is just Obama without a Tan.
TheRealCarnage Ron Paul would never accept a slot on a Newt Gingrich ticket or a job in a Newt Gingrich administration.
Haven't you been listening to Ron Paul himself, when he talks about Gingrich?
just_john_jjTheRealCarnage You're OK with all the racist stuff published in Ron Paul's newsletter?
TheRealCarnage Gingrich/Paul? What are you smoking? Ron Paul has absolutely nothing to do with Newt Gingrich. They are opposites in every way.
TheRealCarnage I'd LOVE to see a Gingrich/Paul ticket! Talk about a popcorn burner ... those guys wouldn't be able to get through a newspaper interview without going for each other's throats. It would be a ticket that (a) guarantees an Obama re-election and (b) would provide hours of amusement, watching those two narcissists bloviate their way through National debates against Obama and Biden. OMG! That's a dream ticket!
TheRealCarnage Romney is not Obama without a tan. And racist comments like that add little to the discussion other than telling us a lot about you.
Here is another Poll http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/288403/20120126/wh...
TheRealCarnage This one has Ron Paul only beating "not sure".
TheRealCarnage That's a poll about a debate performance.
Show us a poll where the question is "Who do you intend to vote for?" that has Paul in the number one spot.
Uh oh! Las Vegas, we have a problem. Spaceship Gingrinberg is leaking nitrous oxide at a dangerous level. Must Have More Cash!
After last night's failure to "John King" even a tame, Ball Li*ker like Wolf, he simply had nothin'! He stood there, taking incoming from all sides and his normal verbal flatulence was not powerful enough to drive them away.
The brass plated "orator" has hit his peak. At least he MAY still have some Adelson "Love" coming for the next 4 events, or beyond. Ricky will fail to top 11% and fade into well justified oblivion due to extreme lack of cash, supoport and a rational point.
The Republican party has finally been exposed. The top candidate, Mr. 0.00187% is being battled by the singular family of the Adelsons: 0.00015%.. A cage match of the vastly rich versus the Really vastly rich, for control of the most powerful office in the world.
Perhaps it is actually dangerous to have a few malevolent people who can truly feel that $10 million is just "not that much money". I humbly propose a 75% inheritance tax for any estate over "not very much money". Almost the entire crop of freaky, John Birch gazillionaires are inheritors of great wealth.
Gingrich has to know by now he's not going to win Florida, let alone the nomination. He's arrogant, he's completely insane, but he's not stupid. If Newt truly wanted to give a final **CK YOU to Mittens, he would drop out right this moment and tell all of his supporters to vote for Santorum. Romney would be caught completely flat-footed since he's focusing all of his ire (and money) at killing Gingrich. Newt's support + The Frothmeister's support combined would be enough to beat Romney. Of course, Mitt would regroup and be able to eventually outspend Santorum in later states. But he would be humiliated, again, and prove once and for all that nobody really likes him, even if he is the nominee.
Daniel Sickles Congressman Extraordinaire I don't think Newt is going to give up on himself that easily... but I do think he will take Romney down with him when he inevitably sinks to the ground... this clown show is far from over!
Evidently it is now becoming Obama territory, too, according to a new poll.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Like