Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich scored a huge victory in the South Carolina Republican primary this weekend. He performed well in the debates and data suggests that drove his rise in the polls — his numbers picked up after he revved up the partisan crowd and Romney faded into the background. And then he won the actual vote by nearly thirteen points.
That’s all well and good. Republican voters are certainly happy with the fire that Gingrich is providing, as the one common thread that GOP voters share this cycle is a desire to see President Obama run out of office. But if that is their goal, then Newt’s surge doesn’t make much political sense. See the chart below.
Newt Gingrich Favorability, National
Gingrich’s favorability among general election voters — the metric that many pollsters argue is the key to understanding how the public feels about a candidate — is not high. It certainly improved when Newt surged nationally in early December, gaining more media attention as Republicans and GOP-leaning independents started to feel better about him. But since he was crushed by negative ads in Iowa, leading to a fourth place finish there and in New Hampshire, Newt’s favorability numbers have again plunged — his unfavorability score hit 58 in a CNN poll, 56 in a Fox News survey, and 60 in Public Policy Polling (D) data.
So in the short term, Republicans in South Carolina were content to reject Romney as their nominee — he’s the best candidate against President Obama in both national and state polling by far, but by the numbers, he’s always had trouble making the sale to the conservative wing of his own party. Exit polls showed that Republicans voting for the “best candidate to beat Obama” actually went for Gingrich. But if the chart above says anything at all, it’s that the embrace of Gingrich is a problem for Republicans in 2012. And that has to have Democrats smiling.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle Leighton is a News Writer at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
Note the pointed ears and teeth. Significant.
Newtron's rise ends at Florida. Thankfully he's taking Mittens down with him. If you are looking for the adult in the room, don't tune in the debates. Stay with TPM and slide over to the Daily Dish as well. Andrew Sullivan and his readers peg the Repukes for what they are; vacuous, adolescent haters who apparently have no clue about how their actions in the primaries will pigeon-hole them in a general, making them unelectable. I take heart that somewhere in the cosmos, Paul Wellstone is laughing his celestial ass off.
MrRubble "Adolescent" is much too kind. A crowd of 4th grade playground bullies.
IF we can limit the general election vote to only Southern Republicans with no other choice closer to their ideological bent; you got yourself a president. If we continue to allow others to vote, he doesn't have a chance.
Newt, you slay me. I hope your toad ass get's kicked so badly by Obama you can't walk.
I am not only smiling, I am beaming. My hope is to give NEWT some $ and crossover to vote for him come the California Primary in 2012. The truth is, he is unelectable. The other truth is this: Newt IS the true face of the GOP once the mask comes off. Romney is a cover, but Gingrich, in all of his corpulent, mean, racist, outrageous NEWTISM is the true representation of the current GOP, one that would shun weicker, jeffords, javits, hell Bush 1, rockefeller, etc...
The GOPPERS should be honest and put forth the true scabby, loathsome soul of the party, and that is Newt. Think Richard Nixon with even less principles and more venom.
coltraning your overall point is well taken, though i'm not sure gingrich is quite in tricky dick's league. gingrich is petty and mean-spirited but he isn't the paranoiac nixon was, which is what lead nixon to the depths of political depravity. however, i think this is precisely why a gingrinch nomination has the roves and other establishment "gurus" so apoplectic. gingrich's inherent meanness and utter lack of compassion practically ooze from his pores and in that sense he exposes the real republican agenda, one he helped shape back in the 90s. sooner or later he is going under the electron microscope and it is already clear that the ones really afraid of him are his own party operatives:
chris christie calls gingrich an "embarrassment" on Meet the Press.
coltraning Romney's a wannabe. His "walk like a duck" laugh line has gotten so dry, James Bond uses it to stir his martini.
MrRubble That's OO Dry
Today's 'favorables' and 'unfavorables' are simply that: "Today's".
Last month's 'favorables' were good for Mitt and bad for Newt.
Last week's 'favorables' were good for Newt and bad for Mitt.
"Favorables" and "Unfavorables" are manipulable - mostly it takes money.
Mitt has plenty money !
Money helps most in the long run.
Mitt's money will win the Republican nomination, and Mitt's 'favorables' will be 'okay'.
workforcecomplex
This is favorability among ALL Americans, not just Republicans. And Newt's negative rating has always vastly outstripped his positive. When the clear majority of Americans don't like somebody, that makes it very hard for them to get elected.
If Newt were to become President, and the country was ailing, which country would he leave America for?
Xcntrik A pretty one, with shallow water at the beaches
AlienMarmosetXcntrik And with hot babes frolicking around on them. ;)
Gingrich's #1 problem: We all know who Newt Gingrich is. His "surge" in South Carolina will soon be known as his "career highlight."
The polls a month or so before SC didn't make much sense, either. Neither do the ones showing Obama with low approval numbers. Campaigns do change things. If Newt continues to surge, his numbers will change. I've come to think he'll be a more formidable candidate against Obama than Romney because he's smarter, trickier, and is a master at spin. He'll bring out the base better than Romney. The upside for Dems is that he'll also bring out their base as Dem attacks do their work.
davew He's not smarter, but he's more vicious and willing to say anything to get elected. Mitt's willing to change his stances, but he's not willing to spout absolute nonsense the way Newt is.
But Gingrich is such a good debater!
duck_rabbit Didn't Obama get elected because he was a great orator...are we really dumb enough to fall for that again?
Doesn't make much sense but poll do not lately...robo generated or self proclaimed...Then again he won on lies like this..coded and racist:
http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/76598... http://www.factcheck.org/2012/01/newts-faulty-food...
tesswade3 duck_rabbit ONE of Obama's many plusses was his oratorial skills. But it was substantially more that that put him over the top. For one thing he appears normal; is happily married, no baggage with a beautiful family and a wife who made an elegant first lady. And that's just personalities. The skill level was pretty apparent as well.
Yeah, can you imagine Calista as 1st Lady? SCARY!!!!
tesswade3duck_rabbit No, he got elected because he revitalized a despondent middle class to think that "we"--the 99%, though no one knew it then--could take this country back. Unless you've been living under a rock for the last 3 years, you should have no trouble seeing the daring and wisdom in Obama's moves. Bush II and an unregulated Wall Street drove this country into the ditch and Obama pulled us out. The proof's right there in our wallets. This Obama-bashing is really getting old . . . but maybe you'd be happier back in the Roaring Twenties with no protections, no regulation, no 40-hour work week, lynchings, Boss Tweed and Harding's poker-playing buddies in the White House...
Eustace Tilley 2.0 Score: 9
dale0987654321Eustace Tilley 2.0 TPM, please don't delete Eustace Tilley's posts. They is too much fun!
rhewittdale0987654321Eustace Tilley 2.0
This is weird. When I refresh, the Tilley post reappears without comments; then it disappears, and the comments appear. I'm mystified.
DavidrhewittEustace Tilley 2.0 Same weirdness.
David I deleted it tO PUT IT SOMEWHERE ELSE. sorry :-(
Eustace Tilley 2.0David Oh good! I was worried they got carried away after cleaning up last night's troll attack :-)
Eustace Tilley 2.0David A real elitist would never apologize to the little people.
dale0987654321David I abhor ELITESTS AND ELITISM. OF WHICH THE left has in spades.
Eustace Tilley 2.0dale0987654321
The Left may have all the spades, but the Right has all the diamonds! And a lot of the clubs!
Eustace Tilley 2.0dale0987654321David Are you sure you don't mean, EDUCATION, and "THOSE WHO HAVE THE AUDACITY TO UNDERSTAND AND BELIEVE SCIENCE" ?Anti-science party, your swan song is nearing its crescendo.
DavidEustace Tilley 2.0dale0987654321 and we on the "Left" also have all the hearts.
DavidEustace Tilley 2.0dale0987654321 Don't forget the pair of Jokers.
Eustace Tilley 2.0David E.T., haven't I seen your avatar elsewhere on TPM? Or maybe another site? It's the image that made the original New Yorker magazine famous and that became its symbol. I recall it especially because it seemed so elegant and totally unlike your rather churlish and ignorant post at that time...
DavidI think THE LEFT IS BEHIND MY STUPIDITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eustace Tilley 2.0 Stupid Left Behind!
Eustace Tilley 2.0David Intelligence is hard to fathom! Stupidity makes comments like "the left is behind my stupidity"!
wORSE THan after Newt's soaring victory???
Eustace Tilley 2.0
You've got to "Let the eagle soar / like she's never soared before".
DavidEustace Tilley 2.0 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!!
David some friends and i were doing a bit of, ahem, freelance broadcasting here in town in the run up and aftermath of the invasion of iraq. we used ashcroft's spontaneous rendition of that little gem at a press conference as a segue between a dub song and the clash's "sandanista." fun stuff.
I think it is hysterical that Newt is taking credit for the job creation during the Clin-ton years while others in the right wing ignorati give all the credit to the Republican Congress. Like most (actually all) things they say, the facts aren't there. When BillC took office, in January, 1993, the unemployment rate was 7.3%. The Republicans said then, as they still say now, that raising taxes would hurt job creation. Guess what? they were 100% wrong. At the end of 1994, before the GOP took control of Congress, the unemployment rate had dropped to 5.5%. that two year period saw the greatest percentage drop of the unemployment rate of BillC's presidency. Sorry Newt, it wasn't anything you did.
jaguarman2210 If Newt is the candidate, our President will not have to beg former President Clinton come out in full attack mode.
MerryMirth The worst word to read in front of President Clinton's name is former
Conversation from Twitter
Xcntrik That link didn't work. Maybe they deleted it? Or just banned access?
byroniac It was probably "Them". Here is the link to the article http://t.co/b5FVnEa6. Don't tell anyone where you got it..
INTEGRITY / CHARACTER / MORALITY
I find it very disturbing that the moral integrity, character, emotional stability and mind-set of a person and especially anyone seeking to hold the highest office in the land, has now allowed the bar to be downgraded to such a low standard by some; that any Tom, Dick or Jane from the bottom of the gutter could basically meet and pass the test by merely buying a clean new pair of clothing, showering, shave and a hair cut. Pretty much that's what I'm hearing. That is some very scary, dangerous, beyond lazy and brainwashed twisted mess! I would not ever think of allowing any full grown adult who is that weak and unstable in my home, close around my kids/family members or close enough to even remotely screw around in my daily life.... I don't understand how anybody could think of this being even a little bit acceptable for yourself or your country!
I just hope the majority of the Country has not become that desensitized. This is what the entire current Republican-Tea Party base sounds and acts like! They are willing to except the lowest standard character / snake or slime over that Black Guy with the funny name whom happens to Brilliant. The best man for the job who exceeds the standards bar buy a long shot when measured against the previous presidents of the past few decades even! Think and Re-think about it people, would you really be comfortable leaving your children, elders, family members alone on a Island for 4 years in the hands of anyone of these running Candidates, REALLY? INTEGRITY / CHARACTER / MORALITY
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