As Newt Gingrich surges in the polls against Mitt Romney, despite the fact that many observers think he would be a disaster for the GOP’s prospects, some Republican pundits have re-lit the flame for a new candidate to jump in and save them from a Mitt vs. Newt contest. But there is a serious problem with these fantasies: It is now impossible to get on the ballot in many states.
For the purposes of this discussion, let us assume hypothetically that Newt Gingrich wins the Florida primary next week. This could in turn set in motion an implosion of Mitt Romney’s support among Republican voters across the country, who have never been enthused about this establishment favorite.
A key difference from the epic 2008 Democratic primary battle: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were able to fight it out for so long in such a close contest, because each one’s supporters genuinely liked their candidate, sticking with them through thick and thin. But without such a factor, a Gingrich surge among Republican base voters could simply continue unimpeded.
However, with Gingrich being viewed so unfavorably by the wider voting public, Republicans might want to do everything possible to stop Newt — even, so the speculation goes, abandoning a faltering Romney and bringing in someone else like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or any number of other beloved names.
And this is where the actual primary calendar comes into play. It might be possible to have a candidate jump into the caucus states that are coming up — but this is no guarantee that such a candidate could win those caucuses, which can be dominated by more strongly conservative party activists. And in the more plentiful primary states, the task becomes nearly impossible.
In every primary state up through early April, the filing deadlines have passed. That includes the very delegate-rich Super Tuesday of March 6, when a total of 329 delegates will be at stake in primary states, compared to 104 in caucuses.
Indeed, the first filing deadline to come after the Florida primary will be for Texas — but it is on February 1, the day immediately after the Florida primary itself, and presumably too late for any such scenario. It is not until late April that any contests are held that will have filing deadlines further into February, and even then this is cutting it close.
Thus, for a Republican hero to ride in on a white horse, it would take a scenario that verges on political science fiction: A combination of write-in voting where applicable — and for Romney to fully drop out and endorse this new savior candidate, to essentially bequeath his place on the ballot by telling his pledged delegates elected in this manner to go along with it.
Simply put, such a scenario would be practically impossible to actually pull off. For one thing, would Romney ever actually do it? And even if he did, primary voters might just back Newt instead, when faced with such a maneuver by a desperate political establishment.
Here is the list of primaries and filing dates, via the Federal Election Commission and state government election sites:
Primaries already closed:
New Hampshire — October 28
South Carolina — November 1
Florida — October 31
Georgia — November 15
Tennessee — Dec. 6
Oklahoma — Dec. 7
Louisiana — December 9
Michigan — Dec. 9
Virginia — Dec. 22
Ohio — Dec. 30
Wisconsin — Jan. 3
D.C. — Jan. 4
Massachusetts — Jan. 6
Illinois — Jan. 6
Arizona — Jan. 9
Vermont — Jan. 9
Maryland — Jan. 11
Alabama — Jan. 13
Mississippi — Jan. 14
Puerto Rico — Jan. 18
Rhode Island — Jan. 21
Primaries Still Open:
West Virginia — Jan. 28
Kentucky — Jan. 31
Texas — Feb. 1
North Carolina — Feb. 7
New York — Feb. 9
Indiana — Feb. 10
Pennsylvania — Feb. 14
Delaware — Feb. 24
Arkansas — March 1
Connecticut — March 2
Oregon — March 6
Nebraska — March 7
Montana — March 12
Utah — March 15
New Mexico — March 16
California — March 23
South Dakota — March 27
New Jersey — April 2
Caucuses:
Iowa
Maine
Nevada
Colorado
Minnesota
Washington state
Alaska
Idaho
North Dakota
Wyoming
Kansas
American Samoa
Hawaii
Missouri
ed. note: This post originally said that the filing date for North Carolina is on Feb. 29. However, it is actually even earlier, on Feb. 7 — and is done not via candidate petitioning, but by the state party submitting a list of names to state election officials, which is also done in some other states.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
Is there any maneuvering room that would allow one of these red knights to come in at the convention and muscle out the guys who accumulated votes in the primaries?
thanks for informing us that the impossible will definitely not happen, i guess. such a move would be desperate and crazy, and wouldn't work
Mitt and Newt both have huge egos. No way either would accept a third party "Establishment"* backed candidate being forced upon them with the expectation that they'll relinquish what each perceives as his rightful place. After all, they are the ones that slogged through the dreary process of going to every small diner in no name towns in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, etc.
And let's say Newt goes into the convention with the most delegates and then is asked to step aside. He would probably say "F you, I'm running as a New Republican or some stuff like that."
*And who exactly makes up the "Establishment"? Senators? Governors? The Bush family? Rush Limbaugh? Republican pundits? Bill O'Reilly and the Fox News crew? All of the above?
catx10 : "And who exactly makes up the "Establishment"?" --- The ones with the money.
One things for sure...all that talk about Chris Christie being on someone's short list for VP was just obliterated today. I just read on HP that he has nominated a black openly gay man to the NJ Supreme Court. That's gonna disqualify him as leading figure by GOP standards.
STEPHEN MOTHERFUCKING COLBERT.
Renfield8Mnhtn
************************
So. You HAVE seen Colbert's 'long-form' birth certificate!
jw1
jw1Renfield8Mnhtn Only a copy. The bastard still hasn't satisfied my standards.
AdAbsurdum
Eustace, what's your plan for today's fishy, bouillabaisse or ceviche?
__________________________________________
I wonder what's WORSE???
A TIRED CONSERVO-CRACKER that earns NICKELS passing themselves OFF as "sparking progressive wit".
Or the TIRED-ASS PEANUT GALLERY that WATCHES.
JohnnyDrama
JUST BECAUSE i'M BLIND, DOESN'T MEAN i CAN'T SEE!!!!!
JohnnyDrama Oh frack, not this again. I almost prefer the loon who uses a putz as his avatar.
I think it takes 1,143 delegates to secure the nomination. California has, I believe, 172 delegates. Texas has 155. New York has 95. Those three combined would get a candidate over a third of the way to the nomination.
Pennsylvania is another 72. North Carolina is 55. Missouri is 52. New Jersey is 50. Indiana is 46. That's well over halfway.
Utah's another 40. So's Minnesota.
A late-start campaign can't win outright, but they can force a brokered nomination. That's not the same thing as an open convention (which, contrary to what Newt thinks, isn't a convention where the delegates are all allowed to sleep with each other), mind you, which I doubt we'd see, given a) the general unlikelihood of such a thing and b) the long lag time between the last nomination contest and the convention providing ample time for negotiation. But it's certainly a power play that could be considered to either keep Romney's dreams alive or provide him with a chance at the #2 slot. He might be willing to consider it if it means keeping Newt from an outright win.
Jay R Remember, it's not winner take all anymore. It's proportional.
Calchala Only the ones before April are proportional. Ones in April are, I believe, still winner-take-all. Of the ones I listed, I think only Missouri and Minnesota will be proportionally allocated, and the rest will be winner-take-all.
Except that such a late-starter would (a) bomb spectacularly, (b) deny Romney an easy path to the nomination, which is not, I imagine, what this exercise is supposed to be about. If they could find these votes for Candidate X, why couldn't they find them for Romney? And if Candidate X is so great, why didn't he/she run in the first place? Or if (more realistically) Candidate X was a spoiler to split conservative votes with Gingrich, then doesn't he already exist and is called, however implausibly, 'Rick Santorum'?
David Sorry, I didn't mean to say this would be a Romney-backed strategy, just that Romney would be likely to consider a negotiated settlement with another candidate whom he hasn't spent the last year getting hammered by (contra Eric's suggestion that only a complete roll-over by Romney could make this plan viable). I'm trying not to lock into thinking of a late-starter as a stalking horse, since there's no reason that would necessarily be the case.
The idea would be to run someone who isn't yet damaged goods, who might have a chance in the general election, and who could unite the GOP, since whoever it is would have to be able to draw support from each of the factions currently tearing the party apart.
If I were betting on potential names, I'd guess Senators Thune, Corker, Barrasso, Cornyn and Wicker. Those are the only ones young enough with enough cash-on-hand for a late start (the reason I looked to Senators is because they can transfer their existing funds to a presidential run), and all have fundraising lists capable of generating at least $8-10 million in a pinch if they take off.
Jay RDavid Maybe it's finally Tim Pawlenty's turn to shine!
@Jay R "an open convention, which . . . isn't a convention where all the candidates are allowed to sleep with each other."
Right -- That's a Green Party convention.
(Sorry, couldn't resist that one.)
It's too late for someone to come in and win, yes. But not too late for someone to do quite well and force a brokered convention; A brokered convention with the RNC pulling the strings.
The fact this article is even being written... Shows how weak these GOP candidates are... I am just not buying any of these polls showing Obama is in trouble right now. Yes I am bias but so are these goof's post how Obama is a traitor, inept etc... You may disagree with Obama's policies and some mistakes made by his administration. Which all administrations do... But Obama is by far from inept!! I remember some GOP talking head on a panel in late 90's calling Clinton an incompetent President. So you know what you are getting with Obama as POTUS. Romney - Gingrich? Do you REALLY think these guys are better Presidential material than Obama? So yes tough politico environment. But big difference between a poll showing people are soured on Obama versus people willing to vote Romney/Gingrich over Obama. Obama is alot more talented politician than either of those 2 combined.
Eustace, what's your plan for today's fishy, bouillabaisse or ceviche?
AdAbsurdum
I'm afraid Eustace has returned to Supreme Headquarters for further orders.
JohnnyDramaAdAbsurdum I think en papillote. It's FRENCH!!!
JohnnyDramaAdAbsurdum JohnnyDrama = Ron Huntsman from last week I think.
Eustace Tilley 2.0AdAbsurdum
You THINK....
THAT'S a laugh.
JohnnyDramaAdAbsurdum "A fish's brain is generally smaller than a walnut and most of it is used for interpreting sounds, smells, sights, and tastes, not for thinking. What passes for smarts in a fish is really a well-oiled set of instincts. They don't think; they just react..."
Eustace Tilley 2.0AdAbsurdum
YOU ans THEM have a lot in common.
Eustace Tilley 2.0JohnnyDrama The fishy waits, and the master baits.
AdAbsurdumEustace Tilley 2.0
I would'nt call me HOOKED just YET.
ESPECIALLY not by some nickel-monkey in bad progressive drag.
AdAbsurdumJohnnyDrama I haven't been called a cracker since last week, RonnyDrama.
JohnnyDramaAdAbsurdumEustace Tilley 2.0
***************************
Thanks for playing!
Sorry. First a nibble. Then another.
If the needle hasn't pegged by the third bite?
You are hooked sir.
jw1
JohnnyDrama JohnnyDrama = ted.underwood
Where are the conical hats and white sheets? That would be rebel cavalry. There are no positive visions and leadership from that crowd.
JohnnyDrama
Eustace Tilley 2.0
You STINK like Rovetroll trying to PULL OFF LAME SATIRE.
Eustace Tilley 2.0
JohnnyDrama You seem LIKE A paid ROVE troll IN ORDER to infiltrate DEMONrat message boards in order TO MAKE demonRATS VOTE REPUBLICAN.
Deflecting AGAIN AND passing blame? Wow. YOU'VE BEEN OUTED ROVE TROLL!!!!!
JOHNNY DRAMA IS A PAID Rove TROLL. wATCH OUT!
____________________________________________________________________
It THAT your REGULAR DEAL, Eustace?
Whenver you ACCUSED oof something you TURN it BACK on the accuser and KEEP REPEATING it ad nauseam????
HOW Fox Nooze....
How FRANK LUNTZ.
Sorry but there is no horse that Chris Christie can ride in on, please forgive me but I had to say it, it's a sickness lol.
Shouldn't the GOP Cavalry be wearing gray uniforms instead of blue?
Beat me to it, where are the Stars & Bars?
Jeb Bush? Really? Does the GOP really think a Bush would be electable at this point?
@president-muffley Becaus what America i sreally crying out for is yet another Bush in the White House.
Unemployment rate when....--Reagan entered office: ....7.5%--Obama entered office: ....7.6%.
Peak unemployment rate under...--Reagan:.....10.8%--Obama:.....10.2%.
Unemployment rate at this SAME point in their terms:--Reagan: ......8.3%--Obama: ......8.5%
jaguarman2210 If Gingrich does pull out nomination. I am looking for Obama to win in a landslide. Daily Beast had an interesting article on that landslide point. There is a website link let's you play around with the electoral votes through all Presidential elections throughout history. Interesting before 60's the south was the democrat voting states. But as Daily Beast pointed out. Obama could win Florida and lose 8 states he won in 08 including either Pennsylvania & Ohio. In fact playing around with map if Obama wins Ohio & Pennsylvania he will be tough to beat. Obama know's how to get to 270 neither Romney nor Gingrich have shown they do... Look for Bill Clinton (who already has been conferred with) to campaign for Obama heavily in Ohio & pennsylvania.
tjirish34 jaguarman2210 If Florida, Virginia anf North Carolina are all in play -- and they appear to be -- then Obama's electoral college prospects are actually not that bad, even if Mitt is the nominee.
tjirish34jaguarman2210 If Gingrich is the nominee look for Bill Clinton to be almost as prevelant on the trail as Obama. He'll literally spend his entire time reminding people what a colossal pain in the ass Gingrich was, and how much a young Dem Prez was able to get done in a second term despite an obstructionist, Rethug Congress.
Maybe Pat Buchanan will be willing to take one for the team.
The bottom line is the current crop of Republicans running for President represents the best they have.
Why people don't see that is beyond me. Maybe its because they CAN'T believe it. But for me, its easy.
willia451 No, this is what they got after scraping the bottom of the barrel. The "best" they had were smart enough to realize that taking on this President would be extremely expensive and incredibly difficult without any guarantee of success. They understood the odds were not in their favor. The ones running now never understood that.
I'm happy with Newt and don't want anyone messing up my chance to see his concession speech in November I want him to be a tortured soul for the rest of his life, wondering how he lost to an Alinsky disciple and secular socialist, who hates free enterprise, and who favors a Kenyan anti-colonial world view
Christie made himself unacceptable to the right wing just today:
Chris Christie Nominates Openly Gay African-American Man To Court
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/23/chris-chr...
YankeeClipper1 "Christie's other nominee, Phillip H. Kwon ... would become the first Asian-American to serve on the court and the first immigrant to serve since the 1947 State Constitution created the court."
The Republicans managed to cut their own throats with their Citizens United razor. Add to that the near brain dead Tea Party mob that they have trained to follow talking heads like one of Pavlov's dogs. They have created the perfect storm for the lying demagogue that has thus far managed to derail three years of careful planning to rid the White House of that "Kenyan Socialist"
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