Burn.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s wide lead in Arizona’s February 28th Republican contest is now four points in a new CNN/TIME poll, having been double digits in other surveys after he won the Florida primary. Catching up is former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) who has come within ten and three points of Romney in the last four polls of Arizona, consolidating crucial conservative support in the state.
The new CNN/TIME numbers show Romney with 36, Santorum second at 32, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) getting 6, placing Romney’s lead within the poll’s margin of error. The survey precedes a CNN debate in the state set to take place tomorrow at 8 P.M. eastern.
The poll paints the Arizona GOP as separating into two camps. From TIME:
Romney has cobbled together a coalition that includes women voters, urbanites, and more moderate and educated Arizonans. He leads Santorum among females (38% to 33%), “white-collar” Republicans (39% to 32%), college graduates (38% to 31%), voters who are neutral toward or oppose the Tea Party movement (42% to 27%), and those who make under $50,000 (36% to 28%). Romney’s stronghold is Maricopa County, home to the state’s capital and largest city, Phoenix, and where he holds a six-point advantage. The two candidates are deadlocked across the remainder of the state.Santorum’s lone significant demographic advantage is among “born-again” Christians, with whom he leads Romney 37% to 28%. A devout Catholic known as a staunch supporter of conservative social views, Santorum is locked in a virtual dead heat with Romney among self-identified conservatives, “blue-collar” voters and Tea Party supporters. To pull an upset, Santorum will have to rack up large margins of victory among these groups, with whom he has performed well in past contests.
The picture in Arizona has been less clear that in Michigan, where Santorum took the lead following his victories in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and is now locked with Romney after being outspent on television in the state. Arizona is a winner take all state in the Republican process, which makes a gamble to campaign there without a shot at winning. But Santorum actually might have a shot, based on the CNN numbers and others. Check out the TPM Poll Average of the state, which has shown movement for the former senator as he’s completing for the top spot in the nominating contest.
What’s remarkable is that Santorum is actually doing this even despite not only being vastly outspent in the state, but he’s hardly competing on that front at all. Last week a Democratic media observer told TPM Romney was outspending Santorum in the state 14 to 1. The Phoenix Business Journal reported that “Santorum has essentially no campaign in Arizona,” and thus Restore Our Future, a super PAC supporting Romney which has been running negative ads against Santorum in the state, is waging a one-sided campaign on the airwaves.
Santorum seems to have improved in Arizona on media attention alone, even as he’s being attacked by Romney’s allies.
The CNN/TIME poll used 467 telephone interviews with likely Republican primary voters conducted from February 17th to the 20th. It has a sampling error of 4.5 percent.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Poll Editor at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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