A new Quinnipiac national poll out Wednesday morning shows good news for Senator Rick Santorum — he’s up by nine points, soaring with the all-important Tea Party and evangelical wings of the Republican primary electorate. But when it comes to the states that will vote next Tuesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a massive lead in Arizona, and an advantage within the margin of error in Michigan according to NBC/Marist numbers also out Wednesday.
“Santorum is riding the momentum wave from his trifecta of victories in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota, but so far this year momentum from one week has been a much-overhyped asset by the time the next round of voting comes along.” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a release. The Quinnipiac data shows Santorum taking 35 percent of GOP voters nationally, 26 percent going to Romney, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 14 and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) sees 11.
The current TPM Poll Average reflects the major movement that Santorum has seen after his wins in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, as well as the non-binding Missouri primary on February 7th. Our numbers, show the former senator with a ten point lead.
National Republican Primary
But in the states that will actually decide on a candidate soon, Romney is doing much better. In Michigan, which has become ground zero in the race, Romney has a mere two point lead over Santorum in new NBC/Marist numbers, 37 - 35, as the February 28th election day nears. Romney’s ability to maintain his status as the inevitable candidate essentially rests on being able to hold off Santorum in Michigan and Arizona — while most GOP voters nationally and in primary states think he’ll be the eventual nominee, many Republicans still can’t be moved to vote for him, and continue to look for alternatives. Santorum is that alternative now.
Michigan Republican Primary
Romney also has a wide lead of 16 points in an NBC/Marist poll of Arizona, which is in stark contrast to CNN/TIME numbers from Tuesday that showed the race within four points. Arizona is a winner-take-all state, and while Santorum made stops there Tuesday, the only group spending anything of consequence on the air is a pro-Romney super PAC bashing Santorum. It had been a foregone conclusion that Romney would take the state, with a sizeable Mormon population and his financial advantage. But the Santorum spike has caused the race to tighten in the last few weeks.
Arizona Republican Primary
Wednesday night the candidates will spar in the first debate in nearly a month. CNN’s Arizona debate may provide the opportunity for yet another shift in the race, as the events have been major focal points all along. Previously, the battle has been between Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who served as the chief non-Romney candidate in South Carolina and Florida. But with Gingrich now in the background and both Romney and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) attacking Santorum on the airwaves, expect the key moments to involve the former senator.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Poll Editor at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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