After a week of spirited campaigning and, despite conflicting reports, exactly one Donald Trump endorsement, the candidates are ready to face the voters in Nevada on Saturday. Here’s everything you need to know going into the caucus.
Nevada’s Pretty New To This Whole ‘Caucus’ Business
Being a caucus rather than a primary there’s no early or absentee voting. Nor can one just casually stop by a polling place while casually strolling to the craps table. You can only vote in-person after listening to surrogates deliver speeches on behalf of their candidates. Unlike Iowa, Nevada Republicans are still new to this approach — their first caucus was in 2008. The higher barrier to participation means that the caucus favors campaigns with the better ground game, which pretty much all sides acknowledge is Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in this case.
Mitt Has It Made In The Shade
There’s no question who the frontrunner is in Nevada. Romney dominated the contest in 2008 with 51% of the vote even as his campaign was going under and there’s little to suggest he won’t be able to replicate his performance on Saturday. His biggest advantage: Mormon voters, who made up about 25% of the Republican electorate in 2008 with 94% of them supporting him. There haven’t been a lot of polls ahead of the caucus, but the few that are out look great for Romney. Anything less than a blowout win will be a disappointment.
That doesn’t mean his stay in Nevada hasn’t been action-packed, however. Even while he is likely to win big, he’s suffered one of the tougher weeks of his campaign, stepping on his Florida momentum by telling CNN he’s “not concerned about the very poor” and then having to endure an awkward endorsement from Donald Trump, who Democrats are counting on to be a serious general election liability.
Ron Paul Is A Big Deal
It’s a state built on guns, gold, and gambling — of course Ron Paul is popular. In 2008, he took a distant second place to Romney in 2008 over eventual nominee John McCain, an impressive performance that his supporters have spent the last several years working to build on in 2012. Paul skipped Florida to focus on caucus states like Nevada and his deep organization and fanatic base give him a big starting edge. A solid second place finish could help put the spotlight back on him after several weeks in which the rest of the field has soaked up most of the attention.
Newt Isn’t Going Down Without A Fight
Gingrich, whose one-man shadow campaign Sheldon Adelson is based in Las Vegas, may struggle to match Romney’s natural appeal and Paul’s finely tuned ground game. But he’s not giving up without a fight. Newt has turned his anti-Romney rhetoric up to 11 in his rallies, basically accusing him of being part of the vast Soros-funded leftist conspiracy to destroy capitalism and Christmas. He could still benefit from Nevada if he can place a strong second, especially if Rick Santorum does poorly, bolstering his case that he’s still the de facto placeholder for anti-Romney votes.
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin is a reporter for Talking Points Memo and co-writes the campaign blog, TPM2012. He previously reported for The Daily Beast/Newsweek as their Washington Correspondent and covered local politics for the New York Sun.
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