President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 4 points overall in a new poll of Florida from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling (PPP), 50 percent to 46 percent. Romney still struggles on favorability with Florida voters, largely unchanged in PPP’s polling since the depths of the Republican primary fight earlier in the year.
“Obama’s strength is based on what’s become a pretty predictable set of groups. He’s up 57-39 with women, 61-36 with Hispanics, 93-7 with African Americans, and 65-27 with voters under 30,” PPP pollsters wrote. “Romney’s up 52-46 with seniors and 55-41 with whites but he’d need larger advantages with those demographics to be ahead overall.”
Romney’s personal rating is at 39 percent favorable, while 51 percent say they have an unfavorable view of the former Massachusetts governor. Obama’s approval rating is at 49 percent in the poll, while 46 percent disapprove of his performance.
Obama benefits greatly from a gender gap in the Florida numbers: He’s up 18 points with women, while Romney wins among men by 10 points. That disfavor extends to Romney’s favorability among women in the state — he runs evenly with men, but 60 percent of women view him unfavorably, compared with 32 percent of women who see him in a positive light. Obama also gets 50 percent of independent voters to Romney’s 41 percent.
“Florida’s going to be closely contested this fall as it always is,” Dean Debnam, president of PPP, said in a release. “But for now we’re finding Barack Obama as a modest favorite in the state.”
The TPM Poll Average of the presidential race in Florida shows Obama approaching a 4-point lead, but the state has swung back in forth over that last year.
Kyle is the Editor of TPM Media’s PollTracker. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.