TPM2012

CNN Poll: Obama Leads By 3 Points, Democrats’ Enthusiasm Ticking Up

President Obama speaks during a campaign rally at The Ohio State University, May 5, 2012. (AP Photo)

Kyle Leighton July 2, 2012, 4:52 PM

President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 3 points nationally, and Democrats’ enthusiasm for the 2012 election is gaining steam, according to a new CNN poll.

Obama’s lead is powered by a continuing gender gap — the president leads Romney 54 percent to 43 percent among women, while the former Massachusetts governor takes men by 5 points. President Obama also leads self-described “moderate” voters, 55 percent to 40 percent. Romney leads among independent voters, 49 percent to 42 percent. Obama has a larger share of votes from from his own party — Romney yields 10 percent of Republicans.

Democrats have a solid uptick when it comes to voter enthusiasm. Forty-six percent of Democrats described themselves as “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about the election in a CNN poll from late March. That number climbed to 59 percent in the current poll. Enthusiasm among Republicans dipped slightly, from 51 percent to 52 percent in March.

Romney lead Obama 53 percent to 43 percent in a sample of voters from 15 “battleground states,” which included Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“That’s both good news and bad news for Romney,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland told CNN.com. “The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama’s home turf.”

The current PollTracker Average of the national presidential race shows President Obama with a 2.6 point lead.

The CNN poll used 1,390 live telephone interviews with registered voters conducted June 28 to July 1. The poll has a sampling error of 2.5 percent.

Kyle Leighton

Kyle is the Editor of TPM Media’s PollTracker. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.