President Barack Obama holds a slim 2-point lead over Mitt Romney in a composite poll of 12 states, including narrow leads in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.
The latest Purple Strategies poll released Monday shows Obama leading Romney, 48 percent to 46 percent, among a combined sample of likely voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The cumulative results show Obama’s lead unchanged from the previous Purple Strategies poll in June, in which Obama also led Romney 48 percent to 46 percent.
Among the state-specific samples, Obama leads by 3 points in Ohio, 2 points in Virginia and 1 point in Colorado. Romney leads in Florida, 48 percent to 45 percent. The poll confirms two of the 2012 campaign prevailing truisms: The presidential race will be extremely close, and the outcome may be contingent on voters’ impression of the national economy.
From Purple Strategies:
Voters’ concerns about the economy continue to loom large, and their outlook is becoming gloomier. Just 28% of voters believe that the economy is getting better, a decline of 8 points from April. Forty-two percent (42%) believe that the economy is getting worse, up 7 points from April.
The impact of voters’ perception of the economy on their presidential choice is dramatic. Among those who believe the economy is getting better, 93% support
Obama, 4% favor Romney. And among those who say it is getting worse, Romney leads Obama 84% to 7%. Indeed, this question is now more predictive of vote choice than any other question we ask — including partisanship.
Each candidate faces his own unique political liability. Obama nurses tepid approval ratings in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida. His negative 46-49 percent job rating in Ohio is the best of the four states. Romney, meanwhile, continues to be vexed by a personality problem. In Ohio and Colorado, his favorability rating stands at an anemic 37 percent, while at least 50 percent of likely voters in each state have an unfavorable view of Romney.
Purple Strategies conducted its poll July 9-13 using automated telephone interviews with a combined sample of 2,412 likely voters in 12 swing states. The margin of error is 1.6 percentage points.
Tom Kludt is a newswriter for TPM. A former research intern and polling fellow for TPM, he lives and works in New York City. Tom graduated summa cum laude from the University of South Dakota in May of 2010 with a B.A. in Political Science and History. He can be reached at Tom (at) talkingpointsmemo.com.